Oil Prices See Steepest Weekly Drop in Seven Weeks

Oil prices experienced a significant downturn this week, with Brent crude tumbling approximately 11% and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) falling more than 9% [1]. This decline marks the steepest weekly drop for both benchmarks in several weeks, pushing prices to their lowest levels since mid-April [1].

Key takeaways

• Brent crude settled at $92.05 per barrel on Friday, while WTI closed at $87.36 [1].
• Trading remains highly volatile, with prices swinging by as much as $6 throughout the week due to conflicting reports on the status of the Strait of Hormuz [1].
• Ship-tracking data shows a gradual easing of disruptions, with three liquefied natural gas tankers recently navigating the vital waterway [3].
• Saudi Aramco has warned that ongoing instability in the region could potentially impact global oil market stability until 2027 [1].

Diplomatic Uncertainty and Market Volatility

The recent price volatility is largely driven by the ongoing conflict involving the U.S. and Iran, which centers on the Strait of Hormuz—a critical shipping route for roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies [1]. While both nations have indicated that a resolution may be near, their descriptions of a potential agreement remain inconsistent [1]. U.S. President Donald Trump has publicly urged Iran to reopen the strait, though the situation remains tense following fresh U.S. strikes on an Iranian military facility and subsequent claims of a retaliatory strike on a U.S. airbase by Iran's Revolutionary Guards [1].

Market analysts suggest that even if a ceasefire is reached, the restoration of normal shipping activity could take several months [1]. Furthermore, any damage sustained by energy infrastructure during the conflict may require an even longer period to return to full operational capacity [1]. Despite these concerns, some observers note that higher U.S. crude exports and softer demand from China have helped absorb part of the supply shock [1]. However, Morgan Stanley has cautioned that if the strait remains closed through June, the factors currently preventing a more pronounced price surge may begin to fade [1].

Why it matters

The global energy market remains in a state of high uncertainty as it navigates the "race against time" to secure supply routes [1]. While some diplomatic progress has been suggested, officials on both sides continue to send mixed messages, leaving the prospects for an interim peace agreement in doubt [2]. Looking ahead, models from Trading Economics suggest crude oil may trade at $88.63 per barrel by the end of the current quarter, with a 12-month outlook estimating a price of $103.10 [2]. As the situation evolves, the ability of the U.S. and China to offset supply disruptions will be a critical factor in determining future price stability [1].