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Gold falls to $4,055 amid $100 Brent crude, 10‑yr Treasury yield 4.707% and 80% odds of a Fed hike – see the key numbers and market impact.
Gold slipped to $4,055.73 per ounce on Thursday, a 1.79% drop that coincided with Brent crude breaching $100 and the 10‑year Treasury yield climbing to 4.707%, its highest level since January 2025【2】. The move pressured the dollar index up 0.25% to 101.35 and reinforced market expectations of an 80% chance of a September Fed rate hike【2】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Spot gold price | $4,055.73 |
| Brent crude price | > $100 per barrel |
| 10‑yr Treasury yield | 4.707% |
| Fed hike odds (Sept) | 80% |
Escalating tensions in the Middle East drove Brent crude above $100 after Houthi attacks on Saudi tankers, reviving fears of a new chokepoint for global oil supplies【1】【2】. Higher oil prices revived inflation concerns, prompting traders to price in a roughly 78% probability of a Fed hike in September, later rising to 80% on Thursday【1】【2】. The combination of rising yields and a firmer dollar squeezed gold, a non‑yielding asset, back below the $4,100 threshold【1】.
Technical indicators show gold entrenched in a downtrend. The spot price sits beneath the 50‑day moving average at $4,241 and the 200‑day average at $4,495, with the 4‑hour RSI near 44, indicating limited upside momentum【2】【3】. Short‑term support clusters around $4,041–$4,072, while longer‑term support lies near $3,886. The market’s bearish bias was reinforced by a sharp decline in initial jobless claims to 187,000—the lowest since 1969—removing a key argument for a softer Fed stance【2】.
Trading Economics projects gold at $4,090.93 by the end of the current quarter and $4,389.32 in twelve months, suggesting modest upside if oil prices retreat and yields ease【1】. However, the prevailing view in the technical analysis is that gold will need crude prices to pull back before any meaningful recovery can occur【2】.
Gold’s slide underscores how quickly geopolitical shocks can translate into higher oil prices, tighter monetary expectations, and a stronger dollar, all of which weigh on bullion. The next week’s Fed meeting and upcoming employment data will determine whether the current bearish pressure deepens or gives way to a short‑term bounce.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 23, 2026 · How we report
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Gold price declined by 1.79% to $4,055.73 after Brent crude breached $100 per barrel, which lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, undermining the earlier rally in gold.
Traders are pricing an 80% probability of a September rate hike, with the market awaiting the FOMC meeting to see if the Fed will adopt a hawkish stance amid high yields and a strong dollar.