Bitcoin Holds $63,000 as Bollinger Bands Creator Sees Reversal

Bitcoin (BTC) is circling $63,000, recovering 4.5% over the past seven days after touching a two-week high of $64,660, as technical analyst John Bollinger points to a potential "W"-shaped reversal pattern that could signal a shift in its downtrend [1, 3]. This price action coincides with renewed, albeit moderate, inflows into US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1, 2].

Price Action and Market Context

Bitcoin's price cooled after reaching $64,660, its highest level since June 22, as US stock markets experienced a correction [1]. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down 0.6% and 2.1% respectively, led by a sell-off in chip stocks, with Micron Technologies falling over 9% [1]. Despite this broader market dip, BTC avoided a major decline, supported by two consecutive days of net inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs [1]. On Friday, these ETFs recorded $224 million in net inflows, breaking a ten-day streak of withdrawals, though the week still ended with $526 million in net outflows [2, 3].

The correlation between Bitcoin and the Nasdaq recently shifted from -0.87 to +0.72 within days, indicating a change from acting as a hedge to behaving more like a high-beta tech stock [1]. Analyst Axel Adler Jr. noted that while Bitcoin is in the late stage of a bear cycle, the ETF segment's renewed inflows signal easing pressure [2]. The $60,000 region has demonstrated significant absorption, holding firm despite previous outflows [2, 3].

Bollinger Bands Signal Potential Reversal

John Bollinger, creator of the Bollinger Bands volatility indicator, has highlighted a "W"-shaped reversal pattern forming in Bitcoin's price action, which he described as "perfectly fractal" across different time frames [1, 2, 3]. This pattern, characterized by two swing lows with a rejected rebound, suggests a potential end to the downtrend that has been in place since October 2025 [2]. Bollinger stated on Monday, "We are at a critical point," adding that if this "W" pattern is successful, it would confirm a change in trend [1]. He previously queried whether its latest iteration could cancel the BTC price downtrend altogether [1].

The price is currently heading to retest the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands indicator, and a rise past this mark could increase the odds of breaking above the $66,000 level [3]. This technical setup comes as Bitcoin bounced off its recent cycle low at $57,000 [3].

What to watch

• Bollinger Bands Mid-Line: Monitor if Bitcoin's price rises past the mid-line of the Bollinger Bands, which could indicate increased momentum towards breaking $66,000 [3].
• $66,000 Resistance: Observe whether BTC can break above the $66,000 level, as this could trigger a short squeeze and accelerate an uptrend towards $74,000 [3].
• Relative Strength Index (RSI): Watch for the daily RSI to rise past 60, which would further confirm a buy signal and potentially mark the end of the current bearish cycle [3].

While institutional interest is slowly returning, overall investor sentiment remains depressed, with whale accumulation slowing in June [2, 3]. The success of the "W"-shaped reversal pattern could be a key indicator for whether Bitcoin can sustain its recent rebound and potentially confirm a shift in its long-term trend [1, 2].