Nasdaq enters seventh bull market, 49% gain in six months

The Nasdaq Composite opened its seventh bull market on April 8, 2025, climbing 49% in the ensuing six months, a gain that far outpaced the 12% correction earlier in the year and set the stage for a potential multi‑year rally [1].

Historic context and recent rally

Since 1990 the Nasdaq has launched seven bull markets, each delivering an average total return of 281% over roughly five years, or about 33% annualised [1]. The current cycle already accounts for 49% of that historic average, implying roughly 232% of upside could remain if the pattern holds. The 13‑day surge of 17% between March 30 and April 17 [2] marks the strongest short‑term gain since the pandemic‑era rebound in March‑April 2020, underscoring the index’s sensitivity to geopolitical and AI‑related news.

Drivers behind the move

The rally coincided with the de‑escalation of the U.S.–Iran conflict, which had pushed oil prices higher and weighed on consumer spending. A cease‑fire on April 8 [2] and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz on April 17 [2] triggered a sharp drop in oil prices, lifting the Nasdaq‑100 to a fresh record high the next day. At the same time, concerns over AI‑related spending surfaced when OpenAI trimmed its 2030 compute budget to $600 billion, down from $1.4 trillion [2]. Despite the slowdown, the sector still represents about 60% of the Nasdaq‑100’s market value, keeping the index buoyed even as individual AI‑heavy stocks show mixed performance.

Market spillover

The Nasdaq’s ascent lifted broader growth‑oriented equities, while the dollar weakened against the euro as investors shifted toward risk assets. Treasury yields slipped modestly, reflecting reduced demand for safe‑haven assets amid the easing of geopolitical risk. Commodity markets, especially oil, fell sharply after the Strait of Hormuz reopened, reinforcing the link between the conflict’s resolution and equity market strength.

What to watch

• U.S. Federal Reserve policy – Any change in rate outlook could affect growth stocks’ valuation.
• AI spending forecasts – Updates from OpenAI, Microsoft, or cloud providers may shift sector momentum.
• Oil price stability – A resurgence in Middle‑East tensions could revive oil prices and test the Nasdaq’s rally.

The Nasdaq’s seventh bull market has already delivered a sizable share of its historic upside, but future performance hinges on the trajectory of AI investment and the stability of geopolitical risk factors.