EUR/USD stalls at 1.1550 as July CPI matches expectations

1. The euro steadied at 1.1550, up 0.08% on the day, after July CPI came in exactly on forecast at 3.4% YoY, leaving the pair confined to its March‑to‑present range.

CPI data and market reaction

The July consumer‑price index rose 3.4% year‑over‑year, identical to the market’s median forecast, while core CPI increased 2.5% YoY and 0.2% month‑over‑month, also on target. Because the numbers offered no surprise, the dollar index lingered flat around 99.85, well below the 100.00 barrier it has not reclaimed since the payroll miss. The euro’s modest 0.08% gain reflects a lack of directional pressure from either side of the Atlantic, as both the ECB and the Fed remain poised for further tightening【1】.

Technical context and range limits

The pair is trading inside a narrow band that has persisted since March, bounded by 1.1516‑1.1535 support and 1.1680 resistance. A break above 1.1680 would invalidate the medium‑term downtrend that began at the January peak near 1.1974, while a fall below 1.1475 would resume the prior decline. The 100‑day simple moving average sits near 1.1570, and the recent high of 1.1580 failed to sustain momentum, keeping price anchored just below that average【1】.

Positioning and sentiment

With the euro 4.1% below its 2026 high of 1.2023 and 1.6% above its twelve‑month low of 1.1354, the pair sits in the lower third of its long‑term range. Recent gains of 191 pips over eleven days have stalled, indicating that marginal buyers have retreated after the CPI release delivered no new narrative. The dollar’s muted reaction and the euro’s limited upside suggest a “pause inside a decline” rather than a nascent rally【1】.

What to watch

• Resistance break: A sustained close above 1.1680 would signal a shift from corrective to constructive structure.
• Support breach: Falling below 1.1475 would re‑establish the downtrend and could trigger further downside.
• Upcoming data: August CPI, due September 11, will be the next major inflation gauge before the September FOMC meeting, potentially reshaping expectations for rate moves.

The euro’s flat performance underscores a market caught between two tightening central banks, with the CPI data offering no catalyst to tip the balance. The next price move will likely hinge on whether the pair can breach the 1.1680 ceiling or slip beneath the 1.1475 floor.