Apple September Event Expectations and Tech Market Rally

Apple will host its September 9 launch event under the leadership of new CEO John Ternus, who officially assumed the role from Tim Cook on September 1 [1, 2]. The transition marks a pivotal moment for the company as it prepares to unveil a new foldable iPhone, a move analysts expect will generate over $45.7 billion in value and help revive the broader foldable smartphone market [1].

Technology sector performance

The broader market rally remains uneven, with technology standing as the only S&P 500 sector in the green [1]. Software stocks led the gains, driven by strong earnings reports from Salesforce and CrowdStrike, both of which saw shares jump roughly 20% [1]. This surge helped push the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF into positive territory for the year, a shift analysts attribute in part to short covering [1].

Conversely, AI infrastructure stocks traded lower despite positive commentary from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang regarding accelerating demand [1]. The divergence between software and infrastructure stocks has left market observers questioning whether there is sufficient capital for both segments to rally simultaneously in the coming months [1].

The foldable iPhone outlook

Apple’s upcoming foldable device is expected to capture a 40% share of the foldable segment by 2027, challenging established rivals like Samsung and Huawei [1]. While the device carries a high average selling price exceeding $2,550, research firm IDC predicts strong demand will drive a 12.6% growth in foldable shipments for 2026, reversing a trend of double-digit declines in the category [1].

The company faces a challenging environment in the wider smartphone market, where IDC has slashed its 2026 outlook to a 16.7% decline [1]. Rising memory costs—described by former CEO Tim Cook as a "hundred-year flood"—are pressuring gross margins, leading to widespread expectations that Apple may raise iPhone prices during the September event [1]. To mitigate consumer sticker shock, the company is expected to rely on carrier-backed trade-in programs and its own upgrade initiatives [1].

What to watch

• Fed Policy: Market participants are focused on Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on Friday at 10 a.m. ET, which is expected to clarify the current monetary policy framework [1].
• Consumer Data: The University of Michigan’s latest consumer sentiment and 1-year inflation expectations data will provide further insight into the macroeconomic environment [1].
• Pricing Strategy: Monitor whether Apple officially increases iPhone pricing at the September 9 event to offset the elevated memory costs impacting the industry [1].

The transition to John Ternus as CEO coincides with a critical juncture for Apple’s hardware strategy and its ability to maintain margins amidst rising component costs. Whether the foldable iPhone can successfully anchor the company's growth in a rocky smartphone market remains the primary question for investors heading into the final quarter.