Bitcoin rebounds above $60,000 as Fed rate‑cut hopes rise

Bitcoin surged past $60,000 on Tuesday, its highest level since the Trump‑era “Ponzi scheme” comment, after a June jobs report missed expectations and revived expectations of a Federal Reserve rate‑cut later this year【1】.

Jobs data and Fed expectations drive the bounce

The June employment report added only 57,000 jobs, far below the 115,000 forecast, while the unemployment rate slipped to 4.2%—a figure that masks a 0.3‑point drop in labor‑force participation【1】. Market analysts argue that the modest hiring and slowing wage growth (average hourly earnings up 3.5% YoY) reduce the urgency for further tightening, keeping a 25‑basis‑point rate hike priced in for 2026 but leaving room for a later dovish pivot【1】. As a result, traders are betting on a Fed rate‑cut later in the year, a move that historically supports “debasement” assets like gold and Bitcoin【1】.

Warsh nomination’s earlier shockwave

In January, former Fed governor Kevin Warsh was nominated by President Trump to replace Jerome Powell. Warsh’s hawkish reputation triggered risk‑off flows, and Bitcoin fell as much as 17% in the days that followed, trading between $74,500 and $81,000 and wiping roughly $250‑$300 billion from the crypto market’s total value【3】. That episode underscores how quickly monetary‑policy signals can swing Bitcoin’s price, a pattern repeated this week as the market digests fresh labor‑market data.

Market sentiment and price context

Bitcoin’s rebound to above $60k follows a year‑to‑date decline of more than 50%, despite BlackRock’s gradual build‑out of crypto infrastructure【1】. The price now sits near the upper end of its recent range (mid‑$50k to low‑$60k) and above the $57k support level that held after the March sell‑off. On‑chain activity was not detailed in the sources, but the price move aligns with macro‑economic cues rather than token‑specific events.

What to watch

• U.S. employment reports – any deviation from consensus could shift Fed rate‑cut expectations and move Bitcoin.
• Fed policy meetings – the July meeting (end of month) has an 82% probability of a rate “hold,” but a surprise decision could reignite volatility.
• Potential Warsh‑related policy shifts – if Warsh assumes the chairmanship, his hawkish stance may again pressure Bitcoin lower.

The latest bounce shows Bitcoin’s sensitivity to macro data: a softer jobs report revived hopes of monetary easing, while the lingering specter of a hawkish Fed under Warsh remains a downside risk. How the Fed balances inflation, wage growth, and political pressure will likely dictate Bitcoin’s trajectory in the coming months.