1.1 Billion XRP Sold in One Week Sparks Whale Speculation

A week of massive sell‑offs saw holders unload roughly 1.18 billion XRP, worth about $2.3 billion at current rates, fueling speculation that whales know something the market doesn’t [2]. The dump coincided with XRP trading near $1.47, after a brief rally to $1.50 that marked its biggest one‑day gain in two months [1].

The price swing was driven largely by the Senate Banking Committee’s upcoming CLARITY Act markup on May 14, which has become the single most immediate catalyst for XRP. Analysts at Standard Chartered estimate the bill could generate $4‑8 billion in cumulative ETF inflows by year‑end, tightening supply and potentially pushing the token toward $1.65‑$1.80 if passed [1]. Market odds for passage spiked to nearly 80 % last week before retreating to 62 % after banking groups rejected a stablecoin compromise, leaving the outcome uncertain [1]. Should the markup stall or be delayed past the Memorial Day recess, the bill may be shelved until 2030, stripping XRP of its strongest crypto‑specific driver and likely sending the price back toward the $1.30 support zone [1].

ETF flows have already shown a tight link to price action. XRP spot ETFs recorded a 20‑day streak of net inflows from April 10‑29, pulling in about $82 million and briefly lifting the token above $1.40. The streak ended with a $5.83 million outflow on April 30, and the price slipped back below $1.40, underscoring how quickly ETF demand can erode support [1]. Conversely, a strong inflow week in mid‑April (about $55 million) saw XRP briefly test $1.50 before fading again, highlighting the fragility of any upside move without sustained buying pressure [1].

Heavy selling pressure around the $1.44‑$1.45 range compounds the challenge. Roughly 36.8 billion XRP—about 60 % of the circulating supply—is held near that cost basis, meaning many investors are poised to break even or take profit as the price approaches the level, creating a resistance wall that has repeatedly halted rallies [1]. AI models from ChatGPT and Claude both project that XRP is more likely to retest the $1.30‑$1.35 zone before any durable breakout, given the confluence of whale selling, ETF outflows, and the looming regulatory decision [1].

If the CLARITY Act clears and ETF inflows revive, XRP could finally break the $1.50 ceiling and test higher targets. Absent those catalysts, the market may see further whale‑driven exits, reinforcing the $1.30 support as the critical floor. The real question now is whether any fresh demand—whether from institutional ETF investors or a decisive regulatory win—will surface before the next wave of whale activity pushes the token deeper into the downside corridor.