Ripple XRP slides toward $1 as ETF outflows turn negative

XRP fell to $1.08 on June 3, snapping a five‑week streak of net inflows into U.S. spot XRP ETFs and coinciding with a $1 billion escrow unlock that could pressure the token further.

ETF flows turn negative

After logging $131.94 million of net subscriptions in May 2026—the best month of the year—the XRP ETF complex recorded its first outflow since April 30, with a net $5.34 million withdrawal on June 3. Bitwise’s XRP fund led the outflow at $4.06 million, while Grayscale’s GXRP shed $699 k; only Franklin’s XRPZ attracted new money the next day, but at a modest $3.83 million—far below May’s weekly pace [1]. Cumulative inflows since the funds launched in November 2025 sit at $1.43 billion, but the recent reversal signals waning new demand amid broader market stress.

Supply shock and macro pressure

The outflow coincided with Ripple’s scheduled monthly escrow release on June 1, which unlocked 1 billion XRP—valued at roughly $1.33 billion at the time—into the market. Ripple typically re‑locks 60‑80% of each release, leaving 200‑400 million XRP potentially circulating during a price decline [1]. At the same time, Bitcoin has slipped 25.5% over the past 30 days to $61,000, and the total crypto market cap sits below $2.2 trillion, testing the $2 trillion zone that marked February’s panic lows [1]. The confluence of fresh supply, a weakening macro backdrop, and the breach of the $1.28 resistance on June 1 creates a “triple‑pressure” scenario for XRP.

Support test and ETF resilience

The $1 level aligns with the lower Bollinger band on XRP’s monthly chart and matches the macro demand zone that held during February’s panic at $1.11. Holding this round‑number floor would mark the token’s first psychological break and could stabilize ETF flows; a breach would likely trigger further capitulation, as the funds have already shown sensitivity to price moves—Bitwise’s cumulative inflow of $467 million could turn negative if outflows persist [1]. The prior stress test, when Goldman Sachs exited a $154 million position at $1.37, was absorbed by retail demand, but today’s environment is harsher, with macro headwinds and fresh supply converging.

What to watch

• $1.00 support – a break could accelerate outflows and trigger further price drops.
• Next escrow release – scheduled for July 1, adding another 1 billion XRP to circulation.
• ETF flow trends – sustained net outflows from Bitwise or Grayscale would signal weakening demand.

XRP now sits at a critical juncture: if the $1 support holds, the ETF bid that survived Goldman’s exit may still prove resilient; if it fails, the combined impact of fresh supply and a bearish macro backdrop could push the token into a deeper correction.