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US CPI eases to 0.3% monthly core rise and 3.1% YoY, Asian stocks up 2%+, oil drops on rising US inventories – the numbers shaping markets today.
Asian equity indexes surged after U.S. core CPI rose only 0.3% month‑over‑month and 3.1% year‑over‑year, easing concerns that the Federal Reserve will need another aggressive rate hike [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| US core CPI (MoM) | +0.3% |
| US headline CPI (YoY, July) | 3.4% vs 3.5% in June |
| MSCI Asia‑Pacific index (ex‑Japan) | +2.4% |
| Brent crude | slipped for a second day as U.S. inventories rose |
The latest U.S. consumer‑price report showed core inflation up 0.3% in August, matching forecasts and marking a modest 3.1% rise from a year earlier. The headline CPI for July eased to 3.4% year‑over‑year, down from 3.5% the month before, exactly in line with market expectations [4]. Those figures trimmed the odds of a September rate hike to roughly 40% and lowered the probability of an October increase to about 60% in the CME FedWatch tool.
With inflation appearing “relatively calm,” investors shifted to risk‑on assets. MSCI’s gauge of Asian shares climbed for a seventh consecutive session, posting a 2.4% gain and edging toward a fresh record level [3]. South Korea’s KOSPI jumped nearly 4.2% and Japan’s Nikkei rose 1.6%, reflecting the broader rally across the region. Treasury yields fell as bond prices rose, and the U.S. dollar weakened, reinforcing the equity upside.
The same data that soothed equity markets also prompted a pullback in oil prices. U.S. inventory builds signaled weaker demand, leading Brent crude to slide for a second day, despite earlier gains from geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]. In the bond market, the two‑year U.S. Treasury yield dropped 11 basis points to 4.19%, while Australian and New Zealand yields followed suit, mirroring the reduced expectations of further Fed tightening [2].
The cooling of U.S. inflation has revived risk appetite in Asia, but the durability of the rally will depend on whether the Fed’s policy path and China’s growth trajectory stay on the softer side of expectations.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Aug 13, 2026 · How we report
Inflation is a broad-based and persistent increase in the general price level, whereas a rise in the price of a specific good is a relative price change often driven by sector-specific supply and demand imbalances.
The Federal Reserve monitors inflation to maintain economic stability, as it must balance the need to control price increases with its mandate to support maximum employment.
The quantity theory of money is expressed by the equation MV=PQ, suggesting that when the money supply (M) grows faster than the volume of output (Q), the price level (P) must rise.
While factors like supply disruptions, fiscal stimuli, or wage-price spirals can create transient price pressures, sources indicate that persistent, long-term inflation is fundamentally driven by monetary policy.