Gold slides below $4,100 as US 10‑yr yield hits 4.75%

Gold slipped to $4,045 per ounce on Friday, a 1.5% drop that left the metal unable to break the $4,100 psychological level as the 10‑year U.S. Treasury yield climbed to 4.745% [2].

Yield surge and dollar dynamics

The rise in the 10‑year Treasury yield was the primary headwind for bullion. Yield gains of roughly 7½ basis points pushed the cost of holding non‑yield‑bearing gold higher, a classic bearish signal for the metal. At the same time, the U.S. dollar index edged lower by 0.05% to 99.91, but the modest dip was insufficient to offset the yield impact, leaving gold without a tailwind despite a softer dollar backdrop [2].

Fed dissent and economic backdrop

Federal Reserve dissenters voiced support for further rate hikes, reinforcing inflation concerns. Dallas Fed’s Lorie Logan warned that inflation risks were tilting upward, while Cleveland Fed’s Beth Hammack argued the policy rate remained insufficiently restrictive, and Minneapolis Fed’s Neel Kashkari favored a 25‑basis‑point increase to maintain a gradual tightening path [2]. These comments came after Q2 2025 growth slowed to 1.5% QoQ (down from 2.1% in Q1) and the core PCE price index eased to 3.3% YoY from 3.4%, providing the Fed a rationale to keep rates unchanged on Wednesday [2].

Technical outlook

Technical indicators turned bearish as the Relative Strength Index fell below 50, signaling waning buying interest. Immediate support sits at the July 24 low of $4,022; a break below could expose the psychologically important $4,000 level and the June 17 low of $3,959. For a bullish reversal, gold would need to reclaim $4,100 and then target the July 22 high of $4,165, with the 50‑day simple moving average at $4,185 acting as the next resistance [2].

What to watch

• U.S. CPI and PCE releases: Upcoming inflation data could reshape Fed rate expectations and influence yields.
• Fed policy meeting (Sept. 2026): The odds of a rate hike have fallen to about 31%; any shift in the market’s view could move yields and gold sharply.
• Key technical levels: Watch $4,022 support and $4,100 resistance for potential breakout or breakdown signals.

Gold’s slide underscores how rising Treasury yields can dominate price action, even when the dollar weakens and inflation data eases. The metal’s ability to breach $4,100 will hinge on whether yields retreat or Fed rhetoric shifts, leaving the next few weeks critical for its trajectory.