Trump says market will “go through the roof” as Iran war fuels

Trump told reporters that once the conflict with Iran ends, “the stock market is going to go through the roof” and the U.S. will enter a “golden age” [2]. He made the remarks as official data showed consumer prices rising 3.8% in April – the fastest annual increase since 2023 – driven largely by energy costs that spiked after the U.S. and Israel began striking Iran in late February [2]. The comment came amid a broader debate over how the war’s price pressures will affect the 2026 midterm election narrative.

Inflation surge and energy price spike

The 3.8% year‑over‑year increase in the Consumer Price Index marks a sharp acceleration from the 1.7% rate Trump referenced before the Iran conflict began. Energy‑related items, especially gasoline, now average more than $4.50 per gallon, the highest level in four years, according to the American Automobile Association [2]. These price moves have lifted overall inflation and pushed food prices up nearly 4%, while electricity, utilities, and airline fares have also risen sharply.

Trump’s bullish market claim and market reaction

In the same briefing, Trump asserted that the end of the war would trigger a “massive drop in the price of oil” and propel the stock market “through the roof,” echoing earlier boasts that the war’s worst‑case scenarios – $300‑a‑barrel oil and a 25% market crash – have not materialised [2]. While his statement is a claim rather than a market‑driven fact, it has already been echoed in trading floors, with equity indices showing modest gains after the announcement, though the move remains within normal daily volatility. No direct causal link between the president’s comment and the market move has been confirmed by a source.

Political and economic backdrop

The inflation surge arrives as the midterm election cycle intensifies, with affordability becoming a central voter concern. Trump’s top economic adviser, Kevin Hassett, told Fox News that relief from price pressures is “relatively quickly and certainly ahead of the election” [2]. Energy Secretary Chris Wright, however, has refrained from forecasting a return to pre‑war fuel levels, noting that a drop below $3 per gallon may not occur until next year [2]. These divergent outlooks highlight uncertainty over how long the current price environment will persist.

What to watch

• April CPI release – further data will confirm whether the 3.8% rise is a one‑off spike or the start of a new inflation trend.
• Oil price trajectory – a sustained decline below $80 / barrel could validate Trump’s “massive drop” claim and influence equity sentiment.
• Federal Reserve commentary – any guidance on inflation targets or interest‑rate policy in the coming weeks will shape market expectations.

Trump’s optimism ties the end of the Iran conflict to a dramatic market rally, yet the immediate reality is a higher‑inflation backdrop that is already affecting consumers and investors. Whether the promised “golden age” materialises will depend on the pace of oil price normalization and the policy response to the inflation surge.