Spencer Pratt ties with Karen Bass in Los Angeles mayoral primary

Spencer Pratt, the former reality‑TV personality, has closed the gap with incumbent Mayor Karen Bass, reaching a statistical tie in the latest California Post poll for the June 2026 Los Angeles mayoral primary [1]. The three‑way race also includes City Councilmember Nithya Raman, but the poll positions Pratt as Bass’s primary challenger heading into the November runoff.

Key takeaways

• The California Post poll shows Pratt and Bass essentially tied in support [1].
• Bass remains the front‑runner in multiple polls, holding about 30 % of the vote, while Pratt trails at roughly 22 % [2].
• Undecided voters have fallen sharply from over 40 % in March to the mid‑teens, indicating a consolidating electorate [2].
• Both prediction markets and internal polling continue to price Bass as the favorite, with Pratt priced as the main challenger [2].

Polls show a tightening race

The California Post’s latest internal polling, released in early May, indicates that Pratt’s support has risen to match Bass’s, each hovering around the low‑20 percent range [1]. Earlier surveys from Emerson College, Tavern Research, and university pollsters had Bass leading with 30 % and Pratt at 22 % in May, while Raman trailed at 19 % [2]. The trend reflects a steady climb for Pratt after an early surge, while Bass’s numbers have plateaued in the low‑to‑mid 20s.

Prediction markets reinforce the same hierarchy: Polymarket and Kalshi price Bass at roughly 70 % chance of winning, with Pratt priced in the mid‑20s and Raman near 6 % [2]. These markets, which aggregate crowd expectations, suggest that despite the poll tie, Bass remains the favorite to either win outright or secure a spot in the November runoff.

Campaign focus on wildfire response

Wildfire management has become the central policy battleground. Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades Fire, has framed the race as a referendum on Bass’s handling of fire emergencies, accusing her administration of inadequate preparedness [2]. He has used social media to contrast the current Sandy Fire response with the earlier blaze, arguing that the city’s firefighting resources have been reduced. Bass, for her part, defended her record, noting the removal of Fire Chief Kristin Crowley after the Palisades Fire and emphasizing ongoing monitoring of the Sandy Fire [2].

Why it matters

The tie between Pratt and Bass signals a potentially competitive runoff, a scenario that could reshape Los Angeles’s policy priorities, especially on public safety and wildfire mitigation. With undecided voters largely committed, the November ballot will likely feature a direct contest between the incumbent and the reality‑TV challenger, making campaign narratives and voter turnout crucial. The outcome will determine the city’s direction on homelessness, public safety, and disaster response as Los Angeles confronts recurring wildfire threats.