Ethereum Price at $1,795 After Three Quarterly Losses

Ethereum (ETH) is trading at approximately $1,795 on July 11, marking a 65% decline from its all-time high of $4,955, after closing three consecutive quarters in the red for the first time in its history [1]. This unprecedented losing streak has prompted varied analyst outlooks, with Citi lowering its 12-month price target to $2,240 while Standard Chartered maintains a $4,000 target [1].

Price Action and Market Sentiment

ETH's current price of around $1,795 follows a recovery from a multi-month low of $1,570 earlier in July [1]. This rebound was partly driven by a short squeeze on July 3, which liquidated $281 million in bearish positions [1]. The price increase also coincided with the Bureau of Labor Statistics reporting only 57,000 new jobs in June, significantly below expectations, and comments from Fed-Chair Kevin Warsh on July 1 suggesting reduced inflation risks [2]. This combination lowered the probability of a July interest rate hike from 28.9% to 17.6%, channeling fresh capital into the crypto market [2].

Despite the recent recovery, Ethereum's market capitalization stands at $216 billion [1]. The token recorded losses of 28% in Q4 2025, 29% in Q1 2026, and 25% in Q2 2026, marking the first time in its history that it has closed three consecutive quarters with negative performance [1, 2]. The Fear and Greed Index is currently at 12, indicating "extreme fear" [1].

Institutional Activity and Analyst Outlooks

Institutional engagement with Ethereum has seen mixed signals. On July 1, the non-profit organization Ethereum Institutional launched with support from co-founder Joe Lubin and over 500 bank relationships [1, 2]. BlackRock also launched the iShares Staked Ethereum Trust ETF (ETHB) in March [1]. However, Spot ETH ETFs experienced outflows of $529 million in June alone, contributing to selling pressure [1, 2].

Citi has responded by lowering its 12-month price target for ETH from $3,175 to $2,240 and reducing its expected net ETF inflows to zero [1, 2]. In a bearish scenario, Citi projects ETH could fall to $1,094 within the next twelve months [2]. In contrast, Standard Chartered maintains a year-end target of $4,000 [1, 2]. Changelly projects a July average of $2,341 [1]. The 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) for ETH is at $2,317, which is 35% above the current price [1].

The Ethereum Foundation staked 4,938 ETH, valued at $7.86 million, via Lido Finance on July 1 and reduced its staff by 54 positions [1, 2]. Vitalik Buterin presented the Lean Ethereum Masterplan on July 4, and the Glamsterdam-Upgrade is targeted for the second half of 2026 [1]. Exchange balances for ETH have fallen to historical lows, suggesting fewer coins are immediately available for sale [2].

What to watch

• Glamsterdam Upgrade: Monitor developments and implementation of the Glamsterdam-Upgrade, targeted for the second half of 2026, as a potential technical catalyst [1].
• ETF Flows: Observe future capital flows into Spot ETH ETFs, particularly after June's $529 million outflows and Citi's revised expectation of zero net inflows [1, 2].
• Analyst Targets: Track whether ETH approaches Citi's 12-month target of $2,240 or Standard Chartered's $4,000 year-end target, and how these targets evolve with market conditions [1, 2].

The current market environment for Ethereum presents a divergence between a recent short-squeeze-driven recovery and an unprecedented streak of quarterly losses, leaving its near-term trajectory uncertain amidst varied institutional and analyst perspectives.