XRP Price Analysis: Support Levels and Market Catalysts

XRP is currently defending the $1 support level after falling below that threshold three times in August, marking its lowest price points since November 2024 [1]. The token’s recent volatility coincides with a sharp decline in institutional demand and a legislative stalemate in the U.S. Senate that has left the asset without a clear catalyst until mid-September [1].

Institutional flows and supply dynamics

The recent price pressure stems from a contraction in demand rather than selling by existing holders. Exchange-held XRP has dropped to approximately 1.6 billion tokens, the lowest level in seven years and roughly half of the 3.76 billion tokens held on exchanges during the October 2025 peak [1]. Because holders typically move assets to exchanges to facilitate sales, this reduction in exchange supply suggests that long-term investors are currently retaining their positions [1].

Despite the supply contraction, buying interest has remained muted. Weekly inflows into XRP ETFs plummeted 93% to $1.01 million during the first week of August, down from $14.86 million the previous week [1]. While whale activity on the XRP Ledger saw a 280% surge in transactions exceeding $1 million on August 18, these figures represent total volume and do not confirm whether the activity was driven by buying or selling [1].

Legislative and macro headwinds

The market is currently awaiting the September 15 cloture vote on the CLARITY Act, a bill that would classify XRP as a commodity [1]. The Senate’s August recess has delayed this process, leaving the token without a major regulatory catalyst for several weeks [1]. Following the vote, the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on September 16 serves as the next significant macro event [1].

The token currently trades below its 50-day moving average of $1.0969 and its 100-day moving average of $1.1777, both of which have acted as resistance levels during recent recovery attempts [1]. Analysts note that roughly 60% of the circulating supply is currently held at a loss, a condition that has historically preceded the final stages of a market decline [2].

What to watch

• Support Thresholds: A daily close below the $0.99 support level could signal a further decline toward $0.95 [1].
• Recovery Signal: The token would need to close above its 20-day moving average of $1.0572 to establish a potential recovery trend [1].
• Regulatory Timeline: Monitor the Senate floor vote scheduled for September 15, which remains the primary legislative catalyst for the asset [1].

The immediate outlook for XRP depends on whether the $1 support level can hold through the current period of low institutional inflow. With no significant scheduled events until mid-September, the market remains sensitive to broader macroeconomic data and the potential for a shift in sentiment following the upcoming legislative and central bank decisions [1].