Bitcoin could slip to $44,000 by year‑end, miner Jiang Zhuoer says

Bitcoin may drop to about $44,000 by the end of 2026, a 30% decline from current levels, according to Jiang Zhuoer of the Chinese mining firm Strategy Mining Group (Strategy)【3】. He bases the forecast on Strategy’s market net asset value (mNAV) falling to 0.72, a level that historically precedes a price bottom by roughly six months.

Mining economics pressure Bitcoin down

The average all‑in cost to mine one Bitcoin now sits just under $74,000, outpacing the current market price of under $63,000【1】. The gap narrowed from a $23,000 premium a week earlier, but the cost‑price mismatch still creates a structural headwind for miners. A recent 10% drop in network difficulty—the 11th‑largest in history—has reduced the hash requirement to about 125 million hashes per block, temporarily easing the cost pressure【1】. However, the next difficulty adjustment on June 27 is expected to raise the hash target by roughly 4%, pushing mining costs higher just as the Federal Reserve’s new chair signaled a less‑reassuring interest‑rate outlook【1】.

Jiang Zhuoer’s NAV‑based bottom forecast

Jiang points to Strategy’s mNAV falling to 0.72, a level that matched the trough of the previous cycle in 2022【3】. Historically, Bitcoin’s price bottoms about six months after the mNAV reaches this threshold, suggesting a fourth‑quarter bottom around $42,000‑$44,000. His projection relies on a four‑year cycle model that assumes volatility compresses over time【3】. While the model is a claim, the mNAV figure is a concrete metric that investors can track.

Market sentiment and miner positioning

The mining sector is in a “Darwinian” scramble, with firms like Bitdeer boosting hashpower (up 416% YoY) while others pivot to AI‑HPC services amid a $50 billion near‑term funding gap identified by VanEck’s Matthew Sigel【1】. MARA’s BTC treasury has shrunk from 53,250 to 36,303 BTC this year, reflecting a shift away from pure mining exposure【1】. These dynamics reinforce the view that miners are increasingly sensitive to price moves, and a lower Bitcoin price could strain cash‑flow for those still reliant on mining revenue.

What to watch

• mNAV level: A sustained mNAV at or below 0.72 would reinforce Jiang’s timeline.
• Difficulty adjustments: The June 27 difficulty rise (+4%) could tighten mining margins and influence price pressure.
• Fed policy signals: Any indication of higher interest rates may further depress Bitcoin’s risk‑on appeal.

If Bitcoin does slide toward the $44,000 range, the mining sector could face heightened cash‑flow challenges, accelerating the shift toward AI‑HPC diversification. The key question remains whether the mNAV signal will prove reliable in a market where miner economics are already under strain.