Bitcoin climbs above $65,000 after US‑Iran Hormuz deal eases risk

Bitcoin surged past $65,000 on Monday, the first time it breached that level since early June, after news of a tentative US‑Iran agreement to reopen the Hormuz shipping lane sparked a broad rally in riskier assets. The price jump followed a week of volatility that saw Bitcoin dip to $61,244 amid renewed US strikes against Iran and a looming US CPI release [3].

The Hormuz development lifted market sentiment just as traders were bracing for the CPI data, which could swing Bitcoin toward $65,500 if inflation eases or pull it back toward $59,000‑$60,200 if prices stay hot. The technical picture remained bearish, with the RSI stuck at an oversold 23.47 and daily price below key moving averages, but the breakout above $65,000 suggested that the risk‑off mood was softening [3].

At the same time, Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which had dumped 32 BTC in an auction—the first such sale since 2022—had already triggered a short‑term price dip that fell to the $65,000 zone earlier in the week [1]. The company then repurchased slightly more Bitcoin than it sold, a move analysts interpret as a possible attempt to lower its cost basis rather than a loss of conviction. The combination of the Hormuz news and Saylor’s activity created a narrow window where bullish technical signals, such as a recent weekly RSI dip below 30, could finally translate into a price bounce [1].

Institutional interest remains a counterweight to the volatility. CME’s Bitcoin volatility futures and the UK FCA’s proposed crypto fund reforms continue to attract institutional capital, while the market’s overall risk appetite is still constrained by high US inflation and the Fed’s reluctance to cut rates [3]. The Hormuz agreement, however, shows how quickly geopolitical shifts can revive appetite for higher‑risk assets, even as macro pressures linger.

If the CPI comes in softer and the Hormuz deal holds, Bitcoin could test the $64,000‑$64,300 resistance band and potentially climb toward $65,500. A hotter inflation print or renewed tension would likely push the price back to the $60,200 support zone. The next move will hinge on whether the geopolitical easing proves durable enough to outweigh the macroheadwinds.