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XRP trades near $1.15, down ~40% YTD, with monthly RSI at 41.6 – a rare signal that previously preceded big rallies. See why analysts watch this level.
XRP fell to about $1.15, a 40% drop from the start of the year, and its monthly RSI slipped to 41.6 – the lowest reading in the token’s 13‑year history, a zone it has entered only four times [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price | ~$1.15 |
| 24‑hour change | +5.12% |
| 1‑week change | +40% (YTD) |
| Catalyst | Monthly RSI falling to 41.6, historic low |
The monthly RSI, a momentum gauge that smooths price over a month, dropped to 41.6, a level lower than any previous reading for XRP [2]. Historically the token has only entered this zone in early 2017, March 2020, June 2022 and now 2026. Each time it marked a cycle bottom: after trading under a penny in 2017, XRP surged to a record $3.84 in early 2018; after $0.11 in March 2020 it rallied 1,600% to $1.96 by April 2021; and after $0.29 in June 2022 it topped $3 in January 2025 [2]. Those past moves were driven by massive percentage gains from much lower price bases.
Today's rally potential is constrained by a higher starting point. A 40% gain from $1.15 would still leave XRP far below the multi‑hundred‑dollar levels that would be implied by the earlier percentage spikes [2]. Moreover, the monthly RSI reading of 41.6 is lower than the March 2020 low, making this an uncharted territory rather than a repeat of a known pattern [2]. The June monthly candle has not closed, so a bounce above $1.30 could raise the final RSI figure and erase the record low.
XRP’s fundamentals have also evolved. The token now benefits from spot ETFs, a March ruling that classified it as a digital commodity, and the pending CLARITY Act in the U.S. Senate [2]. These developments provide a stronger support framework than the penny‑level environments of 2017 and 2020, potentially cushioning any future price recovery even if upside percentages are modest.
XRP’s slide to $1.15 and the unprecedented monthly RSI dip revive a pattern that once preceded strong rallies, but the higher base price and altered regulatory landscape make the next move uncertain. Whether the token can replicate past cycle‑bottom rebounds—or chart a new path—will hinge on market sentiment, regulatory outcomes, and on‑chain dynamics.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 2 outlets · Jul 4, 2026 · How we report
Government regulators have officially classified XRP as a commodity, not a security.
Seven spot XRP ETFs have launched, with total investor inflows exceeding $1 billion.
The classification removes regulatory uncertainty, making it easier for Wall Street firms to create and offer investment products like ETFs that appeal to institutional investors.
XRP’s ledger is noted for providing a cheaper and faster method for banks to conduct cross‑border transactions.
XRP has continued to face difficulty breaking above the $2 price level in 2026 despite the regulatory clarity.