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Bitcoin has fallen below its 365-day moving average, signaling a deepening bear market. Track key support levels and shifting institutional ETF flows.
Bitcoin has dropped further into bear territory, breaking below its 365-day moving average for the first time since March 2022 [4]. The decline marks a significant shift in market structure, as the asset has lost 23% of its value over the 83 days since breaking that key technical level in November 2025 [4].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Price Trend | Below 365-day moving average |
| 3-Month Performance | 23% decline |
| Key Support Zone | $60,000 – $70,000 |
| Primary Catalyst | Reversal in institutional ETF flows |
The current downturn is driven by a sharp reversal in institutional appetite, with U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs transitioning from net buyers of 46,000 BTC last year to net sellers in 2026 [4]. This shift has created a demand gap of approximately 56,000 BTC compared to the previous year [4]. On-chain data from CryptoQuant confirms this structural weakness, noting that Bitcoin’s Bull Score Index has dropped to zero, the lowest possible reading [4].
Liquidity conditions are also tightening across the broader ecosystem. Tether’s USDT stablecoin market capitalization has recorded its first contraction since October 2023, with 60-day growth turning negative by $133 million [4]. Furthermore, annual spot demand growth for Bitcoin has collapsed by 93% over the past four months, falling from 1.1 million BTC to 77,000 BTC [4].
While Bitcoin has struggled to maintain momentum, recent exchange data shows mixed signals. Binance recorded a net outflow of more than 9,000 BTC on Tuesday, the largest single-day tally since November 2024 [1]. While some analysts suggest this indicates that short-term supply pressure is easing as coins move to self-custody, others caution that negative netflows do not automatically confirm a new uptrend without accompanying spot demand and stable price structure [1].
Market participants are now focused on the $60,000 to $70,000 support zone, a range that encompasses the previous cycle’s all-time high of $69,000 and estimated production costs for miners [4]. Veteran trader Peter Brandt has described the current price action as "campaign selling," suggesting that the downward pressure is being driven by large market participants rather than retail panic [4].
The current bear market is off to a weaker start than the 2022 cycle, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable to further downside in the absence of a return of sustained spot buying [4]. Whether the asset can stabilize above the $60,000 threshold remains the central question for the coming months [4].
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 4 outlets · Sep 6, 2026 · How we report
Bitcoin ETFs experienced a total net outflow of $120 million on September 10, 2026. The ARKB fund accounted for $78 million of this total, while GBTC and IBIT saw outflows of $27 million and $20 million, respectively.
The cumulative inflow for Bitcoin ETFs since their launch stands at $55.45 billion as of September 10, 2026.
Analysts have provided diverse price targets for Bitcoin, with projections ranging from $220,000 to $840,000 over the next three to five years. These estimates are based on various models involving global portfolio allocation, market elasticity, and historical value metrics.
Most Bitcoin funds were trading at a discount to the value of their holdings as of September 10, 2026. Exceptions to this trend included the Grayscale mini trust and Invesco's BTCO fund.