Gold miners forecast $3.5 bn Q2 profit as gold price jumps 37%

Gold miners are projected to post a combined second‑quarter profit of nearly $3.5 billion, up from $2.4 billion a year earlier, driven by a 37% rise in gold prices to $4,506.41 per ounce despite a 14% pull‑back from the January record high of $5,594.82 /oz [1].

Earnings outlook and cost backdrop

LSEG data shows the two largest listed producers, Newmont and Barrick, will together generate almost $3.5 bn in Q2 earnings, a sizable increase over the same period last year. The surge reflects a 37% year‑over‑year rise in average gold prices, which lifted earnings even as prices fell more than 14% from the January peak of $5,594.82 /oz. Analysts note that higher energy costs linked to the Iran war could dampen profit growth, but both firms are still expected to deliver strong free‑cash flow and maintain robust balance sheets [1].

Market reaction and shareholder returns

Despite the cost pressures, the sector’s cash generation remains solid, prompting Scotiabank to forecast significant share‑repurchase programmes for Newmont, Barrick, Agnico Eagle and Kinross. RBC analyst Josh Wolfson highlighted that most gold miners hold net‑cash positions and are positioned to return capital to shareholders while targeting improved operating performance in the second half of 2026 [1]. The earnings releases are scheduled for Newmont on Thursday, Agnico and Kinross on July 29, and Barrick on August 10.

What to watch

• Newmont earnings release (Thursday) – will reveal whether free‑cash flow meets buy‑back expectations.
• Barrick earnings release (August 10) – a key gauge of how higher energy costs are affecting margins.
• Gold price movement – a sustained decline toward the $4,000/oz level could pressure earnings growth.

The projected profit jump underscores the sector’s resilience: higher gold prices are offsetting rising energy costs, but the ultimate impact will hinge on the upcoming earnings reports and any further shifts in commodity pricing.