XRP Price and ETF Inflows Stagnate Amid CLARITY Act Delays

XRP is trading near $1.02, having recently tested a 52-week low of $0.9923, as cumulative inflows into spot XRP ETFs have stalled at $1.51 billion against initial Wall Street projections of up to $8 billion [1, 2]. The failure of the CLARITY Act to pass the Senate has left the asset without the regulatory commodity classification that institutional investors require to commit capital at scale [1].

The ETF inflow shortfall

Wall Street institutions, including JPMorgan and Standard Chartered, initially forecasted between $4 billion and $8 billion in first-year inflows for XRP ETFs, basing these estimates on the adoption rates seen in Bitcoin and Ethereum funds [1]. However, actual inflows have significantly underperformed these expectations, totaling only $1.51 billion since the funds launched in mid-November 2025 [1]. The funds currently hold $988.78 million in assets, meaning roughly one-third of the invested capital has been erased on paper due to the decline in XRP’s price [1].

Institutional interest has proven highly sensitive to legislative progress. In May, when the CLARITY Act appeared closest to passage, the funds recorded their best month of the year with $131.94 million in inflows [1]. As the Senate set the bill aside, monthly inflows dropped to $59.46 million in June and $27.29 million in July, with several days in July recording zero net flows [1]. Unlike Solana-based products, which have attracted institutional capital through staking yields, XRP ETFs currently offer no yield, further limiting their appeal to large-scale asset managers [1].

Price levels and market sentiment

XRP is currently trading approximately 69% below its 2025 peak of $3.50 [2]. Technical indicators show the asset struggling to regain momentum, as it sits below its 20-day moving average of $1.08 and its 50-day average of $1.11 [2]. With the 200-day moving average positioned at $1.45, the asset faces significant resistance at the $1.19 to $1.20 level [2].

Standard Chartered has revised its 2026 price forecast for XRP from $8 to $2.80, citing the drying up of ETF inflows and a broader, more cautious sentiment among institutional investors [1, 2]. While Ripple’s enterprise business continues to grow, CEO Brad Garlinghouse has noted that digital assets currently account for a negligible portion of the $16 trillion in annual payments processed through RippleNet [2].

What to watch

• Legislative progress: Monitor any movement on the CLARITY Act in the Senate, as institutional participation remains tied to the bill’s potential to grant XRP permanent commodity status [1].
• Technical resistance: Watch the $1.08 and $1.11 levels for signs of a potential trend reversal, as the asset currently trades below these key moving averages [2].
• ETF flow data: Track monthly net flows into XRP ETFs; a return to consistent positive inflows would be required to test the lower end of original institutional forecasts [1].

The central question for the market remains whether the current stagnation is a structural failure of the XRP investment thesis or a temporary delay caused by the lack of regulatory clarity. Until settlement volume flows through the token and institutional mandates are met with legislative certainty, the gap between adoption headlines and actual market demand persists [2].