Bitcoin on‑chain metrics point to upside as Puell Multiple tops 1

Bitcoin’s Puell Multiple has risen above the critical threshold of 1, a signal that miner revenue is back to pre‑halving levels and historically precedes major price rallies [2]. This on‑chain rebound comes as the MVRV Z‑Score remains well below its historic peaks, indicating substantial upside potential for the cryptocurrency.

Miner revenue recovery

The Puell Multiple compares daily miner USD revenue to its yearly average. After the 2024 halving, miner revenue typically fell sharply, but the metric has now crossed back above 1, echoing patterns that have preceded strong price moves in past cycles [2]. This suggests that mining profitability is recovering, providing a solid foundation for bullish momentum.

Valuation and sentiment

The MVRV Z‑Score, which measures market value relative to the realized (average acquisition) price, stays far beneath the levels seen at previous cycle peaks, leaving a wide margin for price appreciation [2]. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin Fear and Greed Index sits in the “Greedy” band (around 80‑90), a range that historically can persist for months without triggering a correction until it reaches extreme levels above 95 [2]. The slight decline in active addresses points to untapped retail demand that could fuel the next rally [2].

Macro backdrop

Broader market risk appetite is improving, with high‑yield credit markets showing increased demand as the macro environment shifts toward risk‑on sentiment [2]. Historically, such risk‑on phases have coincided with Bitcoin’s upward moves, adding another layer of support to the current on‑chain picture.

What to watch

• Price resistance: Watch the $30,000 level; a break could signal the next rally phase.
• MVRV Z‑Score: A rise toward historic peak zones (above 2) would suggest valuation tightening.
• Active address trends: A sustained increase may indicate retail re‑entry and bolster price momentum.

The convergence of miner revenue strength, low valuation metrics, and sustained greedy sentiment suggests Bitcoin is positioned for further gains, but the extent will depend on whether retail activity picks up and if macro risk appetite remains favorable.