Spencer Pratt Trails Karen Bass in LA Mayoral Primary, Polls Show

Karen Bass remains the clear front‑runner in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, while reality‑TV personality Spencer Pratt holds the position of the main challenger, according to recent polls and prediction‑market data [2]. The race also includes progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman, but she trails both Bass and Pratt in the latest numbers [2].

Key takeaways

• Karen Bass leads all public polls, with percentages ranging from 22 % to 30 % [2].
• Spencer Pratt is the second‑place candidate, polling between 18 % and 22 % and priced in the mid‑20s on prediction markets [2].
• Undecided voters have fallen sharply from about 40‑50 % in March to the mid‑teens, indicating a consolidating electorate [2].
• If no candidate secures a majority, the top two will advance to a November runoff [1].
• Wildfire response, especially criticism of Bass over the 2025 Palisades Fire, dominates campaign rhetoric [2][3].

Polls, Prediction Markets and the Primary Landscape

Recent Emerson College polling shows Bass at 30 % support, Pratt at 22 %, and Raman at 19 %, with undecided voters down to 16 % [2]. A separate Tavern Research poll from early May places Bass at 22 %, Pratt at 18 %, and Raman at 16 %, further confirming Bass’s lead and Pratt’s position as the closest rival [2]. Prediction‑market platforms echo these trends: Polymarket lists Bass at roughly 71 % probability of winning, Pratt at about 25 %, and Kalshi shows a similar hierarchy with Bass at 69 % and Pratt in the mid‑20s [2].

The primary is nonpartisan, but candidate affiliations are clear: Bass is a Democrat, Raman identifies as a Democrat, and Pratt is a registered Republican running as an independent [3]. With 14 candidates on the ballot, the three front‑runners dominate the conversation, having participated in the sole televised debate on May 6 [3]. Voter turnout is expected to be high, as most Californians vote by mail and ballots postmarked by Election Day have a week to arrive [1].

Campaign Themes and the Role of Wildfire Politics

Wildfire management has become a central issue. Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades Fire, repeatedly attacks Bass’s handling of the disaster, framing it as a failure of preparedness and response [2]. He has used social media to contrast the current Sandy Fire response with the earlier blaze, accusing the mayor of inadequate firefighting resources [2]. Bass defended her record, noting the removal of Fire Chief Kristin Crowley after the Palisades Fire and emphasizing ongoing monitoring of the Sandy Fire [2].

Other campaign topics include homelessness, public safety, and immigration enforcement, reflecting broader concerns among Angelenos [3]. The narrowing gap among undecided voters suggests that these issues, alongside the high‑profile wildfire debate, are shaping voter preferences as the primary approaches.

Why it matters

The primary’s outcome will determine whether Los Angeles’s incumbent mayor, Karen Bass, can secure a second term outright or face a November runoff against Spencer Pratt. Given the city’s recent experience with devastating wildfires, the race highlights how disaster response can elevate a celebrity candidate to serious contention. As undecided voters continue to coalesce around the leading candidates, the final primary results will set the stage for the city’s policy direction on public safety, housing, and climate resilience.