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Latest polls and prediction markets indicate incumbent Karen Bass leads the Los Angeles mayoral race, with reality star Spencer Pratt in second place.
Karen Bass remains the clear front‑runner in the Los Angeles mayoral primary, while reality‑TV personality Spencer Pratt holds the position of the main challenger, according to recent polls and prediction‑market data [2]. The race also includes progressive City Councilmember Nithya Raman, but she trails both Bass and Pratt in the latest numbers [2].
Key takeaways
Recent Emerson College polling shows Bass at 30 % support, Pratt at 22 %, and Raman at 19 %, with undecided voters down to 16 % [2]. A separate Tavern Research poll from early May places Bass at 22 %, Pratt at 18 %, and Raman at 16 %, further confirming Bass’s lead and Pratt’s position as the closest rival [2]. Prediction‑market platforms echo these trends: Polymarket lists Bass at roughly 71 % probability of winning, Pratt at about 25 %, and Kalshi shows a similar hierarchy with Bass at 69 % and Pratt in the mid‑20s [2].
The primary is nonpartisan, but candidate affiliations are clear: Bass is a Democrat, Raman identifies as a Democrat, and Pratt is a registered Republican running as an independent [3]. With 14 candidates on the ballot, the three front‑runners dominate the conversation, having participated in the sole televised debate on May 6 [3]. Voter turnout is expected to be high, as most Californians vote by mail and ballots postmarked by Election Day have a week to arrive [1].
Wildfire management has become a central issue. Pratt, whose home was destroyed in the 2025 Palisades Fire, repeatedly attacks Bass’s handling of the disaster, framing it as a failure of preparedness and response [2]. He has used social media to contrast the current Sandy Fire response with the earlier blaze, accusing the mayor of inadequate firefighting resources [2]. Bass defended her record, noting the removal of Fire Chief Kristin Crowley after the Palisades Fire and emphasizing ongoing monitoring of the Sandy Fire [2].
Other campaign topics include homelessness, public safety, and immigration enforcement, reflecting broader concerns among Angelenos [3]. The narrowing gap among undecided voters suggests that these issues, alongside the high‑profile wildfire debate, are shaping voter preferences as the primary approaches.
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The primary’s outcome will determine whether Los Angeles’s incumbent mayor, Karen Bass, can secure a second term outright or face a November runoff against Spencer Pratt. Given the city’s recent experience with devastating wildfires, the race highlights how disaster response can elevate a celebrity candidate to serious contention. As undecided voters continue to coalesce around the leading candidates, the final primary results will set the stage for the city’s policy direction on public safety, housing, and climate resilience.
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jun 3, 2026 · How we report