Ethereum retests $2,100 as risk of breaking $2,000 looms

Ethereum is hovering near $2,100, a level it retested this week after slipping to $2,223 earlier in the month, and the price sits 8% under the $2,400 resistance that has capped every recent rally [1]. The cryptocurrency’s weekly chart shows a series of lower opens, with the latest close at $2,223, while the 200‑day moving average remains at $2,335, keeping ETH in a bearish zone [1].

Analysts point to the $2,400 zone as the decisive breakout point: sellers have repeatedly defended it since March, and a clean 4‑hour close above would be needed to trigger a move toward $2,500‑$2,600 [1]. Below that, ETH is “in no man’s land,” with the next support band around $2,280 and a deeper floor near $2,200 if the price slips further [1]. The monthly RSI at 38 signals neutral conditions, and a close above $2,650 would be required to confirm bullish momentum heading into Q3 [1].

Two external forces could tip the balance. First, the upcoming Glamsterdam upgrade, slated for June 2026, promises to triple Layer 1 throughput and historically such upgrades precede price gains; a confirmed launch date before month‑end could provide the catalyst for a breakout [1]. Second, Charles Schwab’s rollout of spot Ethereum trading to its 39 million clients began on May 13, expanding retail access and potentially adding demand from hundreds of thousands of new buyers [1].

However, broader market stress adds a downside risk. A widening US‑Iran tension and a Chinese military deployment near Taiwan have sparked a risk‑off wave, pushing high‑beta assets like ETH toward lower support levels. The crypto market’s correction has already broken several short‑term supports, and analysts warn that a breach of the psychological $2,000 barrier is “highly probable” if technical defenses fail [3].

If ETH manages to stay above $2,200, the next test will be whether the Glamsterdam upgrade or Schwab’s retail influx can sustain buying pressure long enough to push the price through $2,400 before May ends. Conversely, a slip below $2,000 would signal a deeper structural weakness and could accelerate the current bearish trend. The coming weeks will reveal which scenario unfolds.