Gold miners near‑record Q2 earnings push sector rebound

Gold miners are poised to post near‑record Q2'26 earnings, with average gold prices at $4,512 per ounce – a 37.3% year‑over‑year increase – fueling profit forecasts that could slash already‑low sector valuations [1].

Near‑record earnings backdrop

The sector’s profit equation—gold price minus all‑in sustaining cost (AISC)—is being driven by the second‑highest quarterly gold average on record, trailing only Q1'26’s $4,873/oz [1]. Analysts project the GDX top‑25 miners’ AISC to average $1,703/oz in 2026, below the Q1'26 level of $1,744/oz, suggesting a cost advantage that could lift unit profits to roughly $2,787/oz – a 50% YoY jump from Q2'25’s $1,861/oz [1].

Market reaction to June volatility

June saw gold plunge 11.6% across three episodes, a move that amplified the GDX ETF’s 15.7% decline, though the ETF’s leverage (≈1.4×) was lower than the typical 2‑3× amplification seen in gold miners [1]. The sharp sell‑off coincided with heightened Fed‑hawkish sentiment after an unexpected rise in U.S. non‑farm payrolls, despite gold’s historical resilience in rate‑hike cycles [1]. Low trading volumes in the summer doldrums likely magnified price swings, but the sector’s low price‑to‑earnings ratios (single‑digit to low‑teens) helped cushion the drop [1].

Production outlook and cost dynamics

World Gold Council data show a seasonal 5.3% QoQ production increase from Q1 to Q2, driven by more favorable spring weather in the Northern Hemisphere [1]. Higher output spreads fixed mining costs, supporting the expectation that Q2 AISC could fall to around $1,657/oz, well under the 2026 midpoint guidance [1]. If production follows the historical 5% QoQ rise, the cost base would further improve earnings margins.

What to watch

• Upcoming Q2 earnings releases from the GDX top‑25 miners (expected late July/early August).
• Gold price movement in response to the next Fed policy decision, scheduled for 31 July.
• Any revision to the World Gold Council’s Q2 production estimates, which could shift AISC expectations.

The sector’s near‑record profit potential hinges on sustained high gold prices and cost containment. Whether the rebound in miner valuations materializes will depend on how quickly gold stabilizes after June’s volatility and on the actual production and cost figures reported in the coming weeks.