Ethereum and Solana supply growth could fall to 0.4% and 1.1% by 2031

Ethereum (ETH) could see annual supply inflation shrink to about 0.4% and Solana (SOL) to roughly 1.1% by 2031 if pending token‑omics proposals pass, putting both networks on a scarcity trajectory comparable to Bitcoin and well under gold’s 1.8% yearly growth [2].

Proposed token‑omics changes

Ethereum’s “Tapered Issuance Burn” (EIP‑8361) would increase the share of validator rewards that are burned as the staking ratio climbs, targeting a 100 % burn once roughly 60.25 million ETH—about half of today’s supply—are staked. Modeling by the proposal suggests annual issuance would peak near 0.5 % at a 20 % staking ratio and then taper toward zero, yielding the projected 0.4 % inflation by 2031 [2].

Solana’s plan combines SIMD‑0550, which would double the yearly decline rate of its current 3.695 % inflation, and SIMD‑0553, which restructures fee burns to destroy more SOL rather than recycle it to validators. The faster decline from SIMD‑0550 does most of the work, driving the projected 1.1 % supply growth by 2031 [2].

Both proposals aim to slow the flow of new tokens into circulation, a move Grayscale argues could support prices if demand stays steady or rises. However, the reduced issuance also means lower staking rewards: a validator or staker earning 5 SOL today might receive only 3 SOL under the new regime, though the higher price of those 3 SOL could offset the lower quantity [1].

Market context and uncertainty

Bitcoin’s issuance schedule is already on track to a similar 0.4 % annual growth by 2031, providing a benchmark for the scarcity targets of ETH and SOL [2]. Gold’s estimated 1.8 % yearly supply increase and the U.S. CPI’s 3.3 % inflation rate further highlight the contrast between the proposed crypto inflation rates and traditional assets [2].

Grayscale’s projections assume the proposals are adopted immediately and that no other network conditions change—a scenario the firm itself flags as unlikely. Moreover, community support differs: Solana’s proposals appear to have broader backing, while Ethereum’s EIP‑8361 faces more uncertainty, according to Grayscale’s head of research Zach Pandl [2].

What to watch

• Governance outcomes: Acceptance or rejection of EIP‑8361 on Ethereum and SIMD‑0550/0553 on Solana in upcoming community votes.
• Staking reward trends: Changes in validator earnings as burn mechanisms take effect, observable in on‑chain reward data.
• Price reaction: ETH and SOL price movements around key support/resistance levels (e.g., ETH $1,800, SOL $70) as scarcity expectations evolve.

If the proposals pass, the resulting scarcity could reshape the supply‑demand dynamics of both tokens, but the ultimate impact will hinge on community adoption, staking behavior, and broader market demand.