Iran faces summer energy shortfall as demand outpaces supply

Iran’s electricity grid is projected to fall short by 13,640 megawatts at peak summer demand, roughly 17 % of the expected load, while gasoline production has slipped to 110 million litres per day, forcing the country to import fuel again [4][1].

President Masoud Pezeshkian has urged households and offices to curb consumption, even demonstrating a lower thermostat by removing his jacket in a recent cabinet meeting. The call comes as air‑conditioning use spikes and war‑related strikes have trimmed refinery capacity from 115 million to 110 million litres per day, while consumption has surged from 10 million litres in 2025 to 140 million litres this year [1].

Iran’s long‑standing subsidies mask the true cost of energy, but inflation, sanctions and a devalued rial have eroded their benefit. A tiered gasoline card now limits most drivers to 60 litres at 15,000 rials (≈0.8 cents) and a further 100 litres at 1.6 cents, with any excess priced at 50,000 rials (≈1.4 cents) and a daily cap of 30 litres. Staff at stations are reportedly instructed to restrict card usage to 10‑15 litres or stop issuing new cards altogether [1].

Small businesses already feel the squeeze: a welding shop near Tehran reports its electricity bill tripling to 120 million rials in a year, while others face tariffs up to 45 times the standard rate for high consumption [1]. The government warns that any price reforms are “not feasible” given the fragile economy and social unrest risk, leaving households with limited relief options.

The looming shortfall and rising fuel imports underscore how the war with Israel and the United States is tightening Iran’s energy supply chain, with the grid’s peak deficit representing nearly one‑fifth of available capacity at the most critical moment [4]. How Tehran will balance demand, subsidies and social stability as summer heat intensifies remains an open question.