Ethereum Flashes Rare Bull Signal

Ethereum's price has flashed a rare monthly demand candle, a bullish signal that has historically preceded significant rallies, with the cryptocurrency gaining over 150% since the signal was first identified [1]. This move has brought Ethereum's price to $4,624, just below the key resistance level of $4,850, which analyst Kevin warns is a major historical resistance level that should not be bought into [1].

What drove the move

The rare monthly demand candle, which has not been seen in years, is a key driver of the current price move [2]. This candle is a large, typically green candlestick that emerges after a protracted correction, and has historically marked the start of significant uptrends. Analyst Kevin notes that the current setup is "something we've never seen before," with a confluence of rare monthly chart signals that could be laying the groundwork for durable altcoin outperformance [2]. The easing of monetary policy, with a 90%+ probability of a US interest rate cut in September, is also seen as a key factor in the current rally [1].

The on-chain and tokenomics context also supports the bullish case, with Ethereum's stock RSI on the monthly timeframe showing a sharp rebound, and whale money flow turning up after a year of exiting ETH positions [2]. The monthly RSI, currently at 51, has not yet broken the crucial 70-level that historically marks the onset of parabolic price action, suggesting that there is still room for further upside [2].

The competitive picture

Ethereum's dominance chart, which tracks ETH's market cap relative to the rest of the crypto space excluding Bitcoin, is also showing a potential double bottom and a newly confirmed MACD momentum shift [2]. This shift, which has not been seen in over two years, could be a key indicator of Ethereum's relative strength and its potential to outperform other altcoins [2]. The ETH/BTC pair is also showing a similar structure, with a near-identical pattern to Ethereum's dominance chart [2].

What to watch

• The $4,850 resistance level, which is a major historical resistance level that needs to be broken for the rally to continue
• The monthly RSI, which needs to break the 70-level for parabolic price action to occur
• The easing of monetary policy, with a US interest rate cut expected in September, which could provide further support for the rally

The real significance of the current move is whether Ethereum can break through the $4,850 resistance level and enter a new phase of price discovery, with analyst Kevin warning that the market is still in a high-risk, high-reward posture [1]. The open question is whether the easing of monetary policy and the rare monthly demand candle will be enough to drive Ethereum's price to new heights, or if the rally will be derailed by macro shocks or other factors [1].