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Senator Cynthia Lummis says the CLARITY Act must pass Senate by end‑April or U.S. crypto regulation stalls until at least 2030 – odds now 63‑66% per market
Lede
Senator Cynthia Lummis warned on April 10 that the CLARITY Act faces its “last chance” to clear the Senate Banking Committee before the end of April, or the next realistic window won’t open until after the 2026 midterms, pushing definitive crypto regulation out to 2030 [3].
At a glance
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| House vote | 294‑134 in favor (July 2025) [3] |
| Senate deadline | End‑April 2026 markup required [3] |
| Market odds | Polymarket pricing 63‑66% for passage this year [3] |
| Catalyst | Lummis’ public warning and looming midterm elections [3] |
Legislative status
The CLARITY Act, formally H.R. 3633, cleared the House with a 294‑134 margin in July 2025 and has since passed the Senate Agriculture Committee [3]. It now awaits a markup vote in the Senate Banking Committee; without that step by the end of April, the bill is expected to stall until after the November 2026 midterms, with some analysts projecting a next opportunity no earlier than 2028 [3]. The bill’s core provision would codify the current regulatory split—digital commodities under the CFTC and digital securities under the SEC—turning the March 17 agency classification of Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana and XRP into federal law [3].
Political dynamics
Lummis, dubbed the “Crypto Queen” of the Senate, is the bill’s most vocal champion; her term ends in January 2027, meaning her departure could leave the legislation without a dedicated advocate [3]. Opponents, including Senator Elizabeth Warren, have framed the act as a “ticket to sanctions evasion,” arguing it could enable illicit activity despite the bill’s AML/KYC language that would bring crypto platforms under the Bank Secrecy Act [1]. Traditional‑finance stakeholders fear stable‑coin yield could siphon deposits, while the crypto industry contends that banning such yield is a protectionist move masquerading as consumer safety [3].
Market perception
Polymarket’s pricing of the bill’s passage has slipped from roughly 75% in May to a current 63‑66% range, reflecting growing uncertainty as the Senate deadline approaches [3]. Industry leaders—including a‑16z partner Chris Dixon and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong—have publicly urged swift action, citing the need for regulatory clarity to sustain U.S. innovation and protect consumers [2].
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 12, 2026 · How we report
Users deposit cryptocurrency to earn interest as lenders, or they lock their digital assets as collateral to borrow funds without selling their holdings.
It is a decentralized financial service that operates across multiple blockchain networks, allowing users to lend and borrow assets on different chains to increase accessibility and liquidity.
Some platforms operate as decentralized protocols without credit checks, while others, such as Nexo, may obtain specific authorizations to offer regulated credit services within local consumer credit frameworks.
Primary risks include market volatility, the potential for collateral liquidation, and the fact that funds deposited on these platforms are typically not insured.