XRP Price Analysis: August Outlook and Key Support Levels

XRP enters August at $1.06, struggling to maintain momentum after a year-to-date decline of approximately 43% from its January peak of $2.41 [1]. The token remains tethered to a narrow trading range between $1 and $1.18, with the $1 mark serving as the only major support level defended by bulls throughout the year [1].

Market positioning and liquidity

The current price stagnation coincides with a significant reduction in exchange-held supply, which has fallen to roughly 1.6 billion tokens—the lowest level in seven years [1]. This represents a sharp decline from the 3.76 billion tokens parked on exchanges in October 2025, suggesting that a large portion of potential sell-side pressure has been removed from the market [1]. Despite this, roughly 60% of the circulating supply remains held at a loss, with an average cost basis near $1.48 [1].

Institutional interest, as measured by spot XRP ETF flows, has also cooled significantly. After a strong debut in November 2025 that saw $666 million in inflows, these funds gathered only $27.29 million during the entirety of July [1]. On-chain data shows that 11 of July’s 22 trading days recorded zero net flows, reflecting a broader slowdown in buyer participation [1].

Macro catalysts and technical outlook

The near-term calendar lacks XRP-specific drivers, as the Senate’s CLARITY Act—which would classify the token as a commodity—has been sidelined until the fall [1]. Ripple’s monthly release of 1 billion XRP from escrow, scheduled for the first of the month, has largely ceased to impact price action as the majority of these tokens are typically returned to escrow [1].

Technically, the token faces a potential "death cross" on the weekly chart, where the 20-week exponential moving average near $1.40 nears a crossover below the 200-week moving average at $1.39 [2]. Historically, such patterns have preceded relief rallies, though analysts note that the current RSI levels near 30 indicate the asset is deeply oversold, a condition seen only three times in the last 13 years [1, 2].

What to watch

• $1.00 Support: A breach of this floor, particularly during the low-liquidity environment of August, could expose the price to a slide toward the $0.85–$0.90 range [1].
• August 12 Inflation Report: A hot reading could delay anticipated interest rate cuts, potentially pressuring risky assets like XRP, while a cool reading may provide a catalyst for a move toward the $1.18 resistance [1].
• Jackson Hole Symposium (August 27–29): With the theme focused on payments and policy, market participants will monitor Federal Reserve commentary for signals on future monetary policy [1].

While the lack of selling pressure has prevented a deeper decline, the absence of new buying volume leaves XRP in a state of consolidation. Whether the token can maintain its $1 floor depends heavily on broader macroeconomic data and the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy stance in September [1].