Indonesia’s rice no longer a primary driver of inflation, says

Indonesia’s Agriculture Minister and head of the National Food Agency (Bapanas), Andi Amran Sulaiman, announced that rice has ceased to be the main contributor to inflation, citing the latest data from the Statistics Agency (BPS) [1].

Key takeaways

• Annual inflation in April 2026 was 2.42% year‑on‑year, up from 1.95% in April 2025 [1].
• Rice inflation stood at 4.36% annually but contributed only 0.60% to the overall food‑price inflation, placing it 28th out of 40 food‑drink‑tobacco commodities [1][2].
• The highest inflation rates were recorded for white cabbage/kale (25.47%) and dencis fish (17.09%) within the same commodity group [1][2].
• Monthly rice inflation remained modest at 0.58% in April 2026, while overall monthly CPI rose by 0.13% [1][2].
• Officials stress maintaining a price balance for farmers and consumers, noting that stable rice supplies and lower fertilizer costs support this goal [1][2].

Rice’s diminished role in the inflation mix

The BPS reported that the food, beverage and tobacco category contributed 3.06% to the overall inflation basket, of which rice accounted for just 0.60% [1]. This makes rice the second‑largest contributor within the category but still a minor share of the total price pressure. In contrast, commodities such as white cabbage/kale and dencis fish showed inflation rates of 25.47% and 17.09% respectively, far outpacing rice [1].

Amran highlighted that the monthly price movement for rice stayed positive at 0.58% in April 2026, while the broader consumer price index increased from 110.95 in March to 111.09 in April [1]. He emphasized the need to keep the producer‑price balance stable, noting that a drop in the government purchase price (HPP) could discourage production and hurt farmers [1]. The minister also pointed to a strong farmer index— the Indeks Nilai Tukar (NTP) for paddy at 145.37, the highest of the year— as evidence of a healthy supply environment [1].

Official perspective and future outlook

Both Amran and Deputy for Food Availability and Stabilization, I Gusti Ketut Astawa, described current rice price fluctuations as “within normal bounds” and stressed that the market remains stable [2]. They warned that any policy move that lowers the HPP excessively could reduce farmer incentives, potentially leading to lower production volumes [2].

The broader significance lies in the shift of inflation drivers away from staple rice toward other food items, suggesting that policy focus may need to adjust accordingly. While rice prices are stable, the government must monitor high‑inflation commodities like cabbage and fish, and ensure that interventions—such as fertilizer subsidies—continue to support both producers and consumers [1][2]. The next steps will involve maintaining the current price equilibrium and addressing any emerging supply‑side pressures that could affect overall inflation trends.