US stock futures rise as Iran‑US talks lift markets

Dow Jones futures slipped 0.18% to 52,403.42, while Nasdaq 100 futures jumped 0.80% to 29,789.50 and S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% to 7,548.00 as the latest US‑Iran exchange eased geopolitical risk and labor‑market data showed a modest decline in initial jobless claims【1】【4】. The move kept equity‑index futures ahead of the previous session’s mixed close and gave the market a short‑term boost ahead of key data releases.

Geopolitical catalyst and labor‑market backdrop

Wednesday’s exchange between the United States and Iran, coupled with Iran’s parliament speaker warning that “bullying” will have consequences, helped calm risk sentiment after a week of heightened tension in the Strait of Hormuz. The easing of geopolitical risk coincided with a modest improvement in the labor market, as initial jobless claims fell to 215,000 for the week ending July 4, down from 217,000 the prior week. The decline, still well below the long‑run average of 359,670, signals a “steady and mature” expansion, according to analysts, and gives the Federal Reserve more leeway on policy【4】.

Market reaction and policy expectations

Equity‑index futures responded positively, with the tech‑heavy Nasdaq 100 leading the rally. The Nasdaq’s 0.80% gain pushed its futures near the 30,000 mark, while the S&P 500 futures rose 0.30% and the Dow stayed near flat. Bond yields rose modestly, with the 10‑year Treasury at 4.56% and the two‑year at 4.19%, reflecting continued market pricing of a 72.7% probability that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at its July meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool【4】. No corporate earnings were released in the session, but upcoming reports from major banks and a range of sector leaders are slated for later in the day.

What to watch

• June existing‑home‑sales data due at 10:00 GMT, which could influence housing‑sector sentiment.
• Federal Reserve July meeting – markets will watch the Fed’s statement for any shift in the 72.7% “hold” probability.
• Oil price movements – any resurgence in Strait of Hormuz tensions could push crude higher and test equity resilience.

The futures rally underscores how quickly markets can rebound from geopolitical shocks when labor‑market data suggest underlying economic strength. The next few days of data releases and the Fed’s policy decision will determine whether the optimism sustains or gives way to renewed caution.