Collector Car Market Experiences Price Correction

The collector car market is undergoing a significant correction, with average sale prices at both live and online auctions dropping 17% in October 2023 compared to the same month the previous year [2]. This shift follows a period of historic growth, signaling a move away from the high valuations seen during the pandemic era [2].

Key takeaways

• Average auction sale prices fell by 17% in October 2023 compared to October 2022 [2].
• The sell-through rate for collector cars dropped to 62% in October 2023, down from 68% the prior year [2].
• Industry experts describe the current trend as a "return to reality" following three years of intense market expansion [2].
• While some sellers continue to hold out for peak prices, auction platforms report that achieving successful sales has become increasingly difficult [2].

A Shift in Market Dynamics

The current cooling of the collector car sector is being felt globally, with industry leaders characterizing the change as both rapid and aggressive [2]. Edward Lovett, founder of The Collecting Group, noted that the speed of this softening is often faster than many sellers are willing to accept [2]. This trend is not isolated to automobiles; similar contractions have been observed in other asset classes, including fine art, wine, and high-end watches [2].

At Hemmings Auctions, prices have retracted by 5% over the same period, even as the platform saw an 8% increase in overall sales volume due to a higher number of vehicles being offered [2]. Doug DeMuro, founder of the auction site Cars & Bids, attributes the softening to a combination of rising inventory levels and declining retail prices in the broader used-car market [2]. Despite these adjustments, DeMuro maintains that the enthusiast car market remains strong when compared to the era preceding the COVID-19 pandemic [2].

Why it matters

The collector car market is adjusting to broader economic uncertainties and the end of the "cheap money" environment that fueled speculation over the last few years [1, 2]. While some market participants remain optimistic, others suggest that the current environment is a necessary correction after a period where traditional economic rationality was suspended [1, 2]. As inventory continues to rise and buyers exercise more patience, the market may see further price adjustments in the coming months, particularly if a recession occurs [1, 2]. For those currently looking to buy, the shift suggests that the aggressive, opportunistic pricing seen during the pandemic may be fading, potentially creating more favorable conditions for future acquisitions [1, 2].