Colombia Presidential Election Pits Petro Ally Against Right

Colombians are heading to the polls on May 31 for a presidential election defined by deep concerns over public security and the legacy of the country’s first leftist leader, Gustavo Petro [1, 2]. The race features a crowded field, with voters deciding which candidates will advance to a likely runoff election on June 21 [1, 2].

Key takeaways

• Senator Iván Cepeda, a staunch ally of President Petro, leads in most polls and is running on a platform of policy continuity [1, 2].
• Right-wing candidates Abelardo De La Espriella and Paloma Valencia are challenging the current administration’s security and economic policies [2].
• The election takes place amid significant public anxiety regarding violence, following the killing of campaign workers and a journalist in recent months [2].
• Candidates must secure at least 50 percent of the vote to avoid a June 21 runoff, which is widely expected to be necessary [2].

A Referendum on the Leftist Agenda

The election serves as a critical test for the administration of President Gustavo Petro, whose term has been marked by a focus on representing Indigenous, Afro-Colombian, and L.G.B.T.Q. communities, alongside a stalled legislative agenda and a difficult relationship with President Trump [1]. His chosen successor, Senator Iván Cepeda, has maintained a comfortable lead in polling by advocating for the continuation of Petro’s policies [1, 2]. While Cepeda is a veteran human rights defender, some observers note that his reserved personality differs from the galvanizing style of the outgoing president [1].

In contrast, the right-wing opposition has centered its campaign on criticizing the government’s "total peace" strategy, which sought to negotiate with armed groups but has faced repeated setbacks [2]. Candidates Abelardo De La Espriella and Senator Paloma Valencia argue that the current administration is weak on crime [2]. De La Espriella, a political outsider who has drawn comparisons to Argentine President Javier Milei, has proposed an austere economic program that includes a 40 percent cut to government spending [2]. Meanwhile, Valencia, a protégé of former President Álvaro Uribe, has adopted a more centrist approach, pledging to include center-left figures in her potential government [2].

Security and Foreign Policy Shifts

Public insecurity has become the dominant issue of the campaign, particularly after the killing of two of De La Espriella’s campaign workers and the death of journalist Mateo Pérez Rueda [2]. The International Committee of the Red Cross reported that 2025 was the country's most difficult humanitarian year in a decade [2]. Both right-wing candidates have proposed a more aggressive stance against armed groups, including a request for U.S. assistance through a new version of the Plan Colombia security program [2]. Additionally, both have signaled a desire to move away from Petro’s environmental policies, which aimed to transition the nation away from fossil fuel production [2].

Why it matters

The outcome of this election will determine the future of Colombia’s domestic security strategy and its international alignment. With roughly 20 percent of the electorate remaining undecided, the final results of the first round will clarify whether the country continues on the path set by its first leftist government or pivots toward a more conservative, U.S.-aligned security and economic model [1, 2]. If no candidate reaches the 50 percent threshold, the runoff on June 21 will finalize the transition of power [2].