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Grayscale predicts rising valuations and the end of the four-year crypto cycle in 2026, while BlackRock expands tokenized funds under the new GENIUS Act.
The digital asset market is undergoing a structural shift in 2026, characterized by deepening institutional integration and new regulatory frameworks. BlackRock recently filed for two new tokenized funds, signaling an expansion of onchain capital management, while Grayscale Research predicts the year will mark the end of the industry's traditional four-year price cycle [1, 2].
Key takeaways
On May 8, 2026, BlackRock filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a tokenized version of its BlackRock Select Treasury Based Liquidity Fund (BSTBL) and the BlackRock Daily Reinvestment Stablecoin Reserve Vehicle (BRSRV) [1]. This move builds upon the success of its BUIDL fund, which became the first institutional-grade onchain fund to surpass $1 billion in assets and now holds nearly $2.5 billion, according to The Tokenization Insight newsletter [1]. The broader tokenized market has grown significantly, rising from roughly $100 million in 2024 to approximately $15 billion, with competition increasing from entities like Circle and Ondo Finance [1]. Analysts suggest BlackRock is positioning itself to monetize the reserve infrastructure of the digital dollar system rather than simply participating in tokenization [1].
Grayscale’s 2026 outlook suggests these developments are part of a larger transition into an "institutional era" driven by macro demand for alternative stores of value and improved regulatory clarity [2]. The firm argues that rising public sector debt and potential inflation risks are boosting demand for scarce digital commodities like Bitcoin and Ether [2]. Consequently, Grayscale expects rising valuations across all crypto sectors and believes Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high in the first half of 2026, effectively breaking the pattern of the four-year market cycle [2]. This outlook is supported by the expectation that bipartisan crypto market structure legislation will become U.S. law in 2026, further integrating public blockchains with traditional finance [2].
The convergence of new financial products like token
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