India gold price falls 1% to ₹146,529 as dollar hits one‑year high

India’s spot gold price closed at ₹146,529 per 10 g, down 1.07% on June 24, as a firmer US dollar and heightened expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike weighed on the metal [1].

Market drivers

A stronger dollar, climbing to its highest level in a year, made gold more expensive for Indian buyers who pay in rupees. The rise in dollar strength coincided with a sharp jump in Fed‑hike expectations after nearly half of Fed officials signaled at least one more rate increase this year. CME FedWatch data showed the probability of a September hike rising to ≈69%, up from 29% a week earlier [1]. The combination of a pricier greenback and tighter monetary outlook reduced gold’s appeal as a safe‑haven asset, prompting the 1% slide.

Domestic demand and outlook

India’s gold imports have fallen nearly 70% since import duties rose to 15%, and Swiss gold exports to India hit a six‑year low of 955 kg in May [1]. Physical demand across jewellery, bars and coins remained muted, and gold‑backed ETFs recorded their first monthly outflow in a year, reflecting profit‑taking after the recent rally. Despite the correction, major banks remain “structurally positive” on gold, with Deutsche Bank projecting $4,800/oz in Q4 under a prolonged Fed pause, while Goldman Sachs trimmed its year‑end forecast to $4,900/oz [1].

Technical picture

Open interest in gold futures rose 0.55% to 9,337 contracts, indicating fresh selling pressure. Prices found immediate support at ₹145,660, with a break below potentially testing ₹144,795. Resistance sits at ₹147,240, and a sustained move above could push the metal toward ₹147,955 [1].

What to watch

• US PCE inflation data (due Thursday) – a key gauge that could shift Fed‑rate expectations.
• Fed’s September meeting – the market is pricing a ~70% chance of a hike; any deviation could move gold sharply.
• India’s import duty policy – further changes could affect domestic supply and price dynamics.

The dip underscores how tightly Indian gold prices are linked to US monetary policy and currency moves. With the Fed’s path still uncertain, the metal’s trajectory will hinge on upcoming US inflation numbers and any policy surprises that could either revive its safe‑haven appeal or keep it under pressure.