Zijin’s $4 bn Allied Gold takeover stalls amid Chinese regulator

Zijin Gold International, a Hong Kong‑listed arm of China’s largest gold miner, announced an all‑cash purchase of Canadian miner Allied Gold for C$44 per share, valuing the deal at about C$5.5 billion (US$4 billion) [1]. The transaction, which would be Zijin’s first major cross‑border deal since its IPO, is now encountering delays as Beijing’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) scrutinises the price and geopolitical exposure of Allied’s Mali assets [2].

Key takeaways

• Zijin agreed to buy Allied Gold for C$44 per share, a C$5.5 billion (US$4 billion) deal [1].
• The NDRC has raised concerns about the premium paid and the political risk at the Sadiola mine in Mali [2].
• Regulatory approvals are required in Canada, China and other jurisdictions, and the deal’s expected April closing is now uncertain [5].
• The acquisition would give Zijin control of gold mines in Côte d’Ivoire, Mali and a development project in Ethiopia, expanding its African footprint [5].
• Share prices for Zijin Gold and its parent rose on the announcement, reflecting market optimism before the regulatory hurdle [1].

Deal announcement and regulatory push‑back

Zijin Gold International disclosed the agreement on 26 January, stating that the purchase would strengthen its gold segment and drive growth in mine‑produced output [1]. The deal includes Allied’s Agbaou and Bonikro mines in Côte d’Ivoire, the Sadiola mine in Mali, and the Kurmuk project in Ethiopia [5]. At the time of the announcement, both Zijin Gold and its parent company saw their shares rise, with Zijin Gold up 11.6 % in Hong Kong and the parent up 2.9 % [1].

However, sources familiar with the NDRC’s thinking say the regulator is questioning whether the premium Zijin is paying is justified and is wary of the “geopolitical risks” tied to the Sadiola mine, which was recently affected by political violence in Mali [2]. This scrutiny threatens to delay the transaction, marking the first major deal since Zijin’s IPO to encounter such regulatory resistance [2][4].

Outlook and implications for Zijin’s African expansion

If completed, the acquisition would double Zijin’s exposure to Africa, moving beyond its existing Akyem mine in Ghana to a portfolio that could produce up to 800,000 ounces of gold annually by 2029, according to Allied’s forecasts [5]. The company has highlighted the strategic fit, noting that the assets offer “long‑life” potential and align with its goal of expanding high‑quality gold holdings [5].

Regulatory approvals remain pending in Canada, China and other jurisdictions, and the anticipated closing by the end of April is now in doubt due to the NDRC’s review [5]. The outcome will be watched closely by investors and host‑country governments, especially in Mali where state oversight of mining is tightening [5].

Why it matters

The delay underscores the growing influence of Chinese regulators on outbound investments, particularly in sectors and regions deemed geopolitically sensitive. For Zijin, the approval will determine whether it can accelerate its African growth strategy and secure a larger share of the global gold market. Continued uncertainty could affect the company’s share performance and may prompt a reassessment of the premium paid for Allied’s assets. Stakeholders will be monitoring forthcoming shareholder votes, court rulings and any further statements from the NDRC to gauge the deal’s trajectory.