Saudi Aramco CEO warns oil market won’t normalize until 2027 if

Saudi Aramco’s CEO Amin Nasser told investors on the Q1 earnings call that if the Strait of Hormuz does not reopen soon, the global oil market will not return to normal until sometime in 2027 [2]. He warned that each week the waterway remains closed costs the market roughly 100 million barrels, already amounting to a loss of about 1 billion barrels since the conflict began in late February [2][1].

Nasser explained that the disruption has forced more than 600 tankers to sit idle in the Gulf, with about 240 ships waiting outside Hormuz and many others stranded or mis‑positioned, creating a “mixed‑up” fleet that will take months to re‑balance [2]. Even if the strait were to open today, the logistics of rerouting vessels and refilling depleted inventories would extend the recovery timeline, he said.

To mitigate the choke point, Aramco has pushed its East‑West (Petroline) pipeline to its full 7 million‑barrel‑per‑day capacity, diverting crude from the Gulf coast to the Red Sea [3][2]. The company also plans to boost export capacity at its Yanbu terminals beyond the current five‑million‑barrel threshold, aiming to offset the lost supply [1]. Despite these measures, Nasser noted that global oil inventories are rapidly drawing down, especially for gasoline and jet fuel, raising concerns ahead of the summer travel season [2].

The broader implication is a prolonged supply shock that could keep oil prices elevated and strain sectors from agriculture to semiconductors, while also testing the resilience of global shipping routes. With no diplomatic breakthrough in sight and the U.S. and Iran far from a cease‑fire, the market faces a multi‑year adjustment period—will alternative logistics and strategic reserves be enough to stave off deeper price volatility?