Bitcoin climbs above $64,000 on cooler inflation outlook and Iran

Bitcoin jumped to around $64,250 on Sunday, breaking the $64,000 barrier as a softer‑than‑expected inflation reading revived hopes of future rate cuts and a U.S.‑Iran peace pledge buoyed market sentiment [1][2].

Inflation data softens Fed stance

The Federal Reserve’s June meeting left rates unchanged and removed the expectation of a rate cut, but Fed Chair Kevin Warsh later noted that inflation risks had eased. That comment sparked a modest bounce that lifted Bitcoin back above $60,000, and the subsequent cooler‑than‑expected inflation report in mid‑July reinforced market expectations that the Fed could eventually ease policy [1]. With the Fed’s July outlook showing a roughly 70% chance of holding rates steady, the softer inflation reading helped push Bitcoin past $64,000, a level that had acted as support during the February crash earlier this year.

Geopolitical optimism adds upside

At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran would be signed on Sunday, pledging that the Strait of Hormuz would be “open to all.” Traders interpreted the move as a reduction in geopolitical risk to global oil flows, which historically supports risk‑on assets like Bitcoin. The news coincided with Bitcoin’s price settling near a local high of $64,750 on Bitstamp, and analysts noted that the 200‑week simple moving average was holding as support, suggesting a durable rebound [2].

ETF outflows and on‑chain accumulation

Despite the price rally, Bitcoin ETFs saw a net outflow of about $4.5 billion in June, the worst month since their launch in early 2024, keeping the total assets under management around $80 billion [1]. However, the recent accumulation of roughly 270,000 BTC by large wallets over the past two weeks points to longer‑term buying pressure that could offset the institutional outflows [1].

What to watch

• $65,000‑$67,000 zone – breaking this range could open the next resistance tier; a failure may pull price back toward $60,000.
• Fed meeting July 28‑29 – any shift in rate‑cut expectations could swing Bitcoin sharply.
• ETF flow data – a reversal from net outflows to inflows would signal renewed institutional confidence.

The price surge above $64,000 underscores how quickly Bitcoin can respond to macro‑economic and geopolitical cues, but the interplay between Fed policy, ETF capital flows, and on‑chain accumulation will determine whether the rally sustains or stalls.