Mortgage rates rise to 6.52%, but buyer applications still surge

The average 30‑year fixed mortgage climbed to 6.52% for the week ending June 11, up from 6.48% the prior week, according to Freddie Mac [1]. The rise nudged rates back toward their 2026 peak and wiped out the affordability gains homebuyers had enjoyed over the previous nine months.

Even as borrowing costs rose, demand did not falter. Mortgage applications increased 10.8% for the week ended June 5, with purchase applications up 7% and refinance requests up 15% [1]. Freddie Mac’s chief economist Sam Khater linked the rebound to a strong labor market, noting that “stronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five‑month high” [1]. Analysts in a Reuters poll expect rates to stay above 6% through 2028, reinforcing the view that buyers are learning to price in higher financing costs rather than waiting for rates to drop [1].

The volatility stems from recent macro shocks. After the U.S. and Israel struck Iranian targets in late February, oil prices spiked, pushing 10‑year Treasury yields—and consequently mortgage rates—higher. A single CPI reading in early April showed inflation jumping from 2.4% to 3.3% month‑over‑month, further stoking rate expectations [2]. By March 21, the 30‑year rate hit 6.53%, its highest since September 2025, before easing to 6.35% by mid‑April as markets responded to a ceasefire and lower oil prices [2].

Buyers appear to have abandoned the “wait for sub‑6%” mindset. Purchase applications surged 10% week‑over‑week and were 14% higher than a year earlier in the week ending April 17, even as rates hovered around 6.35% [2]. Mortgage Bankers Association chief economist Mike Fratantoni attributed the bounce to a resilient job market and a buyer’s market in many regions [2]. With inventory up 142% since January 2022 and sellers trimming prices, the math of waiting is no longer compelling [2].

The lingering question is how long buyers will tolerate rates above 6% while home prices remain relatively flat. If inflation eases and the Fed signals a more aggressive easing path, rates could dip modestly; but analysts at J.P. Morgan and Fannie Mae project 30‑year rates staying in the 6‑plus range for the rest of the year [2]. For now, the market is testing whether demand can sustain itself on higher financing costs alone.