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Coinbase shares fell ~30% YTD; William Blair cut forecasts but maintained Outperform, citing Bitcoin’s “W” pattern and future volume rebound.
Coinbase (COIN) has slid nearly 30% this year, yet William Blair kept its Outperform rating after trimming 2026‑27 revenue forecasts by 12‑13% and EBITDA by 34% [2]. The firm argues the price drop already reflects key risks and points to a potential Bitcoin trend reversal as the upside catalyst.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Stock move | –30% YTD |
| Analyst rating | Outperform (William Blair) |
| Forecast change | Revenue –12% (2026) / –13% (2027); EBITDA –34% |
| Catalyst | Bitcoin “W” double‑bottom pattern & expected volume rebound |
William Blair cut Coinbase’s 2026 revenue estimate by 12% and its 2027 estimate by 13%, while slashing adjusted EBITDA projections by 34% for both years [2]. Despite the downgrade, the bank retained an Outperform call, saying earnings should bottom in the second half of 2026 and recover in 2027 as spot‑crypto volume stabilises. The firm projects total trading volume to fall roughly 44% to $669 billion this year, then rise more than 32% in 2027 [2]. It highlights Coinbase’s Base layer‑2 network, retail derivatives (which generated over $200 million annualised in Q1), and prediction markets as emerging revenue streams that could offset the spot‑trading decline.
Technical analyst John Bollinger flagged a “W” double‑bottom on Bitcoin’s daily chart in early July, describing it as a “perfectly fractal” pattern that could confirm a trend change if the apex resistance holds [2]. Bitcoin has already shed about 26% this year, mirroring Coinbase’s decline, but long‑term holder capitulation appears to be easing, according to Glassnode’s on‑chain data [2]. While spot‑driven buying has not yet materialised, derivative unwinding and a falling options fear premium suggest the market may be primed for a rebound.
William Blair expects Coinbase’s trading volume to contract by 44% this year, reaching $669 billion, before rebounding 32% in 2027 [2]. The firm cites the maturation of spot Bitcoin ETFs, growing institutional flows, and a more settled regulatory environment as structural differences from the 2022 cycle. Additionally, Coinbase’s Base layer‑2 network and retail derivatives—already surpassing $200 million annualised—are positioned to diversify earnings beyond spot trading [2].
Analysts see the 30% stock decline as largely priced‑in, with the next inflection tied to Bitcoin’s technical reversal and the rollout of new revenue streams that could lift Coinbase’s earnings beyond the spot‑trading slump.
Coverage is mostly measured — 204 of 214 reports stay neutral.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 20, 2026 · How we report
Coinbase One members can pledge their Bitcoin holdings as collateral for a home mortgage through Better Mortgage, which allows borrowers to secure financing without selling their digital assets. As of August 26, 2026, this service is available to eligible members and is designed to adhere to Fannie Mae standards.
Coinbase reported a net loss of $359.5 million and a net revenue of $1.22 billion for the quarter ending July 30, 2026. This revenue figure represented an 18.5% decrease compared to the same period in the prior year.
Coinbase One members are eligible for a rebate equal to 1% of the mortgage value, up to a maximum of $10,000, when utilizing the Bitcoin-backed mortgage service offered in partnership with Better Mortgage.
Coinbase stock is subject to risks stemming from the deeply cyclical nature of cryptocurrency markets, which can lead to periods of low prices and depressed trading volumes. As of September 4, 2026, analysts have noted that persistent weakness in these markets can place significant pressure on the profitability of Coinbase.