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US stocks face tests from Fed decision, tech-led earnings deluge, with Brent crude at $96.73, a 4% retreat from $100-a-barrel threshold, and investors seeking
The Federal Reserve is likely to hold interest rates steady at its meeting on Wednesday, with a 38% chance of a quarter-percentage-point rate increase, according to Fed funds futures [3]. This decision comes as oil prices have shot up due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, with Brent crude hitting $100 a barrel on Thursday, before retreating 4% to $96.73 [2].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Brent Crude Price | $96.73 |
| Fed Funds Rate Chance of Increase | 38% |
| Dow Jones Industrial Average Change | 0.5% |
| Nasdaq Change | -0.6% |
The Fed's decision is being closely watched by investors, who are seeking signs about future rate hikes [3]. The central bank's new chair, Kevin Warsh, has shunned forward guidance while vowing to bring inflation down to target [3]. The meeting will be the second under Warsh, and investors will look for hints about the future path of rates in the policy statement and Warsh's ensuing press conference [3]. The possibility of a shock rate hike cannot be ruled out entirely, according to BNP Paribas economists [3].
The oil price shift is also being closely watched, with the price of Brent crude retreating 4% to $96.73, after hitting $100 a barrel on Thursday [2]. This move is likely to impact the earnings of tech companies, which are due to report this week, including Amazon, Apple, Meta, and Microsoft [2]. Investors will be eager to hear about AI investment plans from these companies, with some Fed officials suggesting that spending on AI infrastructure could be a more persistent cause of inflation than energy shocks [2].
The tech companies' capital expenditures also have implications for chip, memory, and data storage stocks, which have recently lost momentum, but have been some of the best performers in the stock market this year [2]. A number of companies that supply AI hardware are slated to report this week, including Seagate Technology, Qualcomm, and Arm Holdings [2]. The tech giants' efforts to monetize AI will be closely watched, with Meta reportedly looking to launch a cloud computing business that may sell excess compute capacity or access to AI models [2].
The real significance of the Fed's decision and the tech companies' earnings reports will depend on the guidance provided by the central bank and the companies' plans for AI investment. The market will be closely watching the Fed's decision, and the earnings reports, to gauge the future path of interest rates and the impact on the stock market.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 28, 2026 · How we report
Warsh said that the June CPI drop does not constitute a trend and that the Fed remains concerned about inflation.
According to Warsh, rate cuts are on hold, with the bias tilted toward maintaining or raising rates.
Core CPI is at 2.6%, which is still above the Fed’s long‑term target of around 2%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) remains quite high, indicating elevated business inflation.
The Fed worries that being too aggressive with rate hikes could push the economy into a recession.