Fed meeting and big‑tech earnings dominate Wall Street focus this week

The probability of a 25‑basis‑point Fed rate hike jumped to roughly 36% on Friday, up from 13% a week earlier, while the S&P 500 opened at 7,464.23, up 0.7% [1].

Fed meeting sets the week’s tone

The market’s first test arrives on Wednesday when the Federal Reserve concludes its policy meeting. Traders expect rates to stay unchanged after a cooler‑than‑expected June inflation report, but the CME FedWatch tool shows a near‑36% chance of a 25‑bp hike, a sharp rise from the 13% probability a week earlier [1]. NYSE insider Jay Woods says the Fed Chair’s press conference, especially any dissenting votes, will “lead the path for the rest of the week” [2]. A surprise hike could tighten financing conditions for the tech sector, which is already under pressure from ballooning capital‑expenditure plans.

Big‑tech earnings under the AI microscope

Around one‑third of the S&P 500 will report earnings this week, including nine Dow components and four of the “Magnificent Seven”: Meta, Microsoft, Apple and Amazon [2]. Woods highlighted Microsoft and Meta’s capex levels, noting both stocks sit near their 200‑day moving averages—levels he deems “critical” for a healthy rebound [2]. Last week, Alphabet and Tesla saw share drops after reporting higher‑than‑expected capex guidance, underscoring investor sensitivity to AI‑related spending [1]. The Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF is down 3% year‑to‑date, reflecting broader market concerns about whether hyperscalers can sustain AI‑driven growth [1].

Other stocks in the spotlight

Beyond the tech giants, Woods flagged three names that could move the market: Coinbase, as a proxy for Bitcoin’s ability to stay above $65,000; Starbucks, which he sees a buying opportunity in as its turnaround gains momentum; and Intercontinental Exchange, which has risen over 20% from its June low and may test a $138‑$140 entry range [2].

What to watch

• Fed minutes from the June meeting for any signs of dissent or a shift in policy tone [5].
• Capex guidance from Microsoft and Meta; a move above the 200‑day average could signal renewed AI demand.
• Bitcoin price relative to the $65,000 threshold, which will influence Coinbase’s trajectory [2].

The heightened probability of a rate hike and the earnings of AI‑heavy firms together create a volatile backdrop. Market participants will be gauging whether the Fed’s stance and tech spending trends align, a dynamic that could set the direction for equities, bonds and the dollar in the weeks ahead.