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Compare gold’s 2‑year price jump to the Nasdaq’s 57% gain and long‑term stock vs gold performance since 1972.
A gold price that rose from about $2,000/oz at the start of 2024 to over $5,250/oz in early 2026 has outpaced the Nasdaq Composite’s 57% total return for the same period, but the metal’s recent slide back into the low $4,000 range raises questions about its relative strength versus equities【2】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| Gold price peak (Mar 2026) | $5,250/oz |
| Gold price now (low 2026) | $4,000/oz |
| Nasdaq 2‑yr total return | +57% |
| S&P 500 2‑yr total return | +24% |
| Dec 2025 gold‑miner AISC (Newmont) | $1,680/oz |
| Dec 2025 gold‑miner AISC (AngloGold) | $1,751/oz |
The metal’s surge of more than 150% from early 2024 to early 2026 was driven by a wave of buying from central banks, institutional investors and retail hedgers seeking protection against inflation and a weakening U.S. dollar【2】. That rally dwarfed the Nasdaq’s 57% gain, which itself outperformed the S&P 500’s 24% rise over the same window【2】.
Since the peak, gold has retreated to the low $4,000 range, still well above the $2,000 level a year earlier. The decline coincided with equities hitting fresh all‑time highs, suggesting investors are rotating back into risk assets as confidence in the dollar and growth outlook improves【2】.
Gold‑mining firms such as AngloGold Ashanti (AU) and Newmont (NEM) have benefitted from the price run because their all‑in sustaining costs (AISC) remain well below market prices—$1,751/oz for AU and $1,680/oz for NEM in 2026, according to management statements【1】. With each $100 rise in gold price, Newmont’s AISC is expected to increase by $6 due to royalty structures, a modest drag on profitability【1】.
Both companies posted strong 2025 results: AngloGold’s revenue jumped 71% to $9.7 billion and net income rose 160% to $2.6 billion, while Newmont’s revenue grew 21% to $22.7 billion and net income reached $7.1 billion, delivering a 32% net margin【1】. Their low debt‑to‑equity ratios (0.3x for AU, 0.2x for NEM) and robust free cash flow ($2.9 billion and $7.3 billion respectively) underscore solid balance sheets【1】.
Despite the upside, mining stocks are not pure substitutes for physical gold. They track the commodity at about 85% correlation, but their share prices also reflect company‑specific risks—geopolitical exposure, legal disputes, and operational challenges—that can cause divergence from the metal’s price movements【1】.
Gold’s dramatic two‑year rally has shown it can outperform equities in periods of heightened inflation risk, yet the recent pullback and the still‑strong performance of the Nasdaq highlight the trade‑off between a pure store of value and the growth potential of stocks. The next moves in inflation data and central‑bank policy will likely dictate which asset class regains the investor’s favor.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 7, 2026 · How we report
Prices retreated due to a strong U.S. dollar, higher real yields from rising interest rates, and reduced demand, especially from India.
Central banks have been buying gold at high rates, purchasing over 240 tonnes in Q1 2026 and keeping annual purchases above 850 tonnes for three years, which supports price stability.
Experts consider a return to $5,000 unlikely in 2026 but possible in 2027 if factors like lower rates, dollar weakness, or geopolitical shocks emerge.