Bitcoin tops $75,000 as analyst predicts bull run start in late 2026

Bitcoin surged 5.9% to $75,000 on Monday, its highest level since mid‑March, after Iran signaled a return to negotiations and the U.S. clarified a limited Hormuz blockade [2]. The move erased a month‑long bearish pressure and sparked speculation that a new crypto bull cycle may be forming.

Market momentum and on‑chain activity

The rally coincided with a broader market bounce: Ethereum rose 8.6% to $2,377, XRP gained 4.2% to $1.38, and Solana climbed 6.3% to $86.55 [2]. Ethereum’s on‑chain transactions jumped 41% over the past week, and ETF inflows turned positive, reinforcing the upward bias. XRP’s weekly ETF inflows reached $119.6 million, accounting for more than half of global crypto fund inflows that week [2]. These cross‑asset flows suggest that the price move is not a isolated short squeeze but part of a coordinated risk‑off reversal linked to falling oil prices.

Cycle timing and long‑term outlook

Crypto analyst @0xbeehive points to a recurring “1,065‑day” bull‑run pattern that followed a 365‑day bear market in the 2018‑2021 cycle [1]. Applying the same rhythm, the analyst projects the current bear phase will bottom in the last quarter of 2026 around $47,000, after which a 1,065‑day bull run could lift Bitcoin above $200,000—a more than five‑fold gain from the projected bottom [1]. The forecast contrasts sharply with the short‑term breakout, highlighting a long‑term horizon that hinges on the bear market’s completion.

Institutional exposure via ETFs

Spot Bitcoin ETFs now hold over $98 billion, with cumulative net inflows of $56.75 billion since launch [3]. Major institutions such as Goldman Sachs and CalPERS have taken sizable positions, underscoring the growing regulatory‑compliant pathway for institutional capital into Bitcoin. This expanding ETF base could amplify price moves if a new bull cycle gains traction, as spot ETFs directly track Bitcoin’s price while futures‑based products incur roll‑cost drag [3].

What to watch

• $80,000–$100,000: If Bitcoin sustains above $75,000, the next resistance lies near $80,000, with a potential run to $100,000 by year‑end if oil prices stay low [2].
• Q4 2026 bottom: Watch for price action around $47,000 as the analyst’s projected bear‑market bottom approaches.
• ETF inflow trends: Continued net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs could signal growing institutional confidence and fuel further upside.

The $75,000 breakout shows that geopolitical easing can quickly revive crypto prices, but the longer‑term trajectory still depends on whether the 2026 bear market bottom materialises as forecast. The interplay between short‑term catalysts and the historic cycle pattern will determine if Bitcoin is merely bouncing or entering a new multi‑year bull run.