Gold jumps $38 to $4,487 as US GDP miss fuels safe‑haven demand

Gold surged $38 on Thursday, closing near $4,487 per ounce, as a blend of geopolitical shock and soft US economic data pulled investors back into the safe‑haven metal [1]. The rally, one of the strongest single‑day moves in recent weeks, snapped a brief consolidation and put bulls eyeing the $4,500 barrier squarely in focus.

The immediate catalyst was an escalation in the US‑Iran conflict. Overnight US military strikes, part of a naval blockade aimed at pressuring Iran over its nuclear program, heightened risk‑off sentiment and sent investors straight to gold. Brent crude rose alongside, hovering around $96 a barrel, stoking inflation worries that further underpinned the bullion bid [1].

Adding to the risk‑off tone, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a first‑quarter GDP revision that fell short of expectations, alongside weaker initial jobless‑claims data. The softer growth trimmed expectations for continued Federal Reserve tightening; the CME FedWatch Tool was already pricing a roughly 98 % chance that rates will hold at 3.50‑3.75 % at the next meeting. Lower growth reduces the opportunity cost of holding non‑yielding assets like gold, giving the metal an extra fundamental tailwind [1].

Looking ahead, the market will watch US non‑farm payrolls due in early June for signs of labor‑market softness that could accelerate a Fed pivot. The next FOMC meeting and any shift toward easing language could revive institutional ETF inflows, which fell 55 % in Q1 as investors rotated into yield‑bearing assets. Meanwhile, the Iran situation remains the dominant wildcard: a ceasefire could pull gold back toward the $4,200‑$4,300 support zone, while renewed disruption of Strait of Hormuz shipping could keep pressure on the metal, as it briefly pushed prices above $5,000 earlier this year [1].

The $38 gain reinforces the structural bull case for gold, which has risen more than 25 % since early 2025 and sits near analyst year‑end targets of $5,400‑$6,000. The key test now is whether prices can hold above $4,470 and sustain a push past $4,500. With payrolls, the Fed, and Middle‑East developments on the horizon, the next few weeks will determine if the rally is a short‑term flare or the start of a longer‑term ascent.