S&P and Nasdaq futures rise ahead of Fed Chair Warsh’s first meeting

S&P 500 futures edged up 0.11% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.56% on Wednesday morning, reflecting modest optimism ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s first policy meeting and the anticipated hold on rates at the 3.50%‑3.75% target range【1】.

Market backdrop and drivers

Wall Street’s mixed close on Tuesday followed a sharp rally spurred by optimism over a tentative U.S.–Iran peace deal that pushed oil prices toward a three‑month low. The dip in oil eased inflation concerns, allowing the Dow to notch record highs for two consecutive sessions. Chip stocks led the pre‑market rebound, with Broadcom, Micron, AMD and Intel each gaining between 1.5% and 3.5%【1】. The sector’s lift helped offset broader uncertainty tied to the Middle‑East conflict and the upcoming Fed decision.

Traders also priced in a roughly 43% probability of a 25‑basis‑point rate hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, while the consensus remains that the Fed will hold rates steady at its June meeting【1】. The market will watch Warsh’s inaugural press conference for any hints on inflation, unemployment and the economic outlook, with analysts expecting a non‑committal tone to avoid diverging from the committee’s consensus view【1】.

Global context and other moves

In Europe, the FTSE 100 slipped 0.2% to 10,471.84 amid steady UK inflation at 2.8% in May, while Germany’s DAX fell 0.3% and France’s CAC 40 rose 0.2%【3】. Asian markets largely rose, with Japan’s Nikkei hitting a new record high of 69,902.25 and South Korea’s Kospi climbing to 8,864.24, driven by strong tech earnings and a 17% export surge in May【3】. Oil prices remained near the three‑month trough, hovering around $79 per barrel for Brent, as hopes persisted for a lasting cease‑fire that would keep the Strait of Hormuz open【3】.

What to watch

• May retail‑sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET, which could sharpen the inflation narrative.
• Fed’s June decision at 2:00 p.m. ET, with particular attention to Warsh’s remarks on “dis‑inflationary pressures” beyond the war.
• December Fed meeting expectations, especially the 43% probability of a 25‑bp hike, as markets gauge the trajectory of monetary policy.

The modest rise in futures underscores that investors are balancing optimism from lower oil and resilient chip earnings against lingering geopolitical risk and uncertainty over the new chair’s policy stance. The outcome of Warsh’s debut will shape market direction in the weeks ahead, especially if his comments signal a shift in the Fed’s inflation outlook.