Loading article…
S&P 500 futures rise 0.23% as oil jumps 3.18% ahead of Fed rate decision, with investors awaiting interest rate guidance and watching earnings from Microsoft
S&P 500 futures edged higher by 0.23% to 4,417.5, while Dow Jones futures slipped 0.17% to 33,791 [1]. The move comes as oil prices climbed 3.18% to $81.75 per barrel, following a reported surprise attack by Iran, injecting fresh supply-chain anxieties into energy markets [3].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 4,417.5, up 0.23% |
| Dow Jones futures | 33,791, down 0.17% |
| Crude oil price | $81.75 per barrel, up 3.18% |
| 10-year Treasury bond yield | 4.61%, down from 4.64% yesterday [1] |
The market reaction is largely driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with investors pricing in a 70.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged [1]. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady, but traders see interest rates rising by at least 25 basis points by year-end [2]. The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.61%, down from 4.64% yesterday [1].
Ford Motor rose 4.08% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raising its FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance [1]. Microsoft and Meta Platforms are expected to post quarterly earnings after the closing bell, with analysts expecting Microsoft to post earnings of $4.24 per share on revenue of $87.63 billion [1]. The second-quarter earnings season has reflected healthy corporate performance, with 85.2% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings having surpassed expectations [2].
The significance of the Fed's decision and the earnings reports will be closely watched, as they will provide insight into the health of the economy and the direction of interest rates. The market's reaction to these events will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the S&P 500 and other major indices.
Coverage is mostly measured — 155 of 177 reports stay neutral.
Every Monday — the token unlocks, Fed dates & catalysts set to move crypto and markets this week. So you’re never blindsided.
Free · 3-min read · one-click unsubscribe
AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 31, 2026 · How we report
Investors are pricing in the extensive AI infrastructure buildout and related defense spending, which have pushed the sector’s P/E ratio above 30, a level typically associated with high‑growth technology companies.
McKinsey & Company estimates that global spending on data centers could approach $8 trillion by 2030, driven largely by AI‑related infrastructure needs.
Caterpillar, the top holding in the Industrial Select Sector SPDR (XLI), and GE Vernova have each risen over 50% this year, with Caterpillar up nearly 160% over the past two years.
Industrial ETFs have collectively seen about $23 billion in net inflows year‑to‑date, with $17 billion flowing into the sector’s core fund and 34% of total flows coming from active managers.
Increased defense budgets have boosted aerospace and defense companies, which make up roughly 25% of the sector’s allocation, contributing to overall sector gains.