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S&P 500 futures rise 0.23% as oil jumps 3.18% ahead of Fed rate decision, with investors awaiting interest rate guidance and watching earnings from Microsoft
S&P 500 futures edged higher by 0.23% to 4,417.5, while Dow Jones futures slipped 0.17% to 33,791 [1]. The move comes as oil prices climbed 3.18% to $81.75 per barrel, following a reported surprise attack by Iran, injecting fresh supply-chain anxieties into energy markets [3].
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| S&P 500 futures | 4,417.5, up 0.23% |
| Dow Jones futures | 33,791, down 0.17% |
| Crude oil price | $81.75 per barrel, up 3.18% |
| 10-year Treasury bond yield | 4.61%, down from 4.64% yesterday [1] |
The market reaction is largely driven by the upcoming Federal Reserve interest rate decision, with investors pricing in a 70.6% likelihood of the Federal Reserve leaving the current interest rates unchanged [1]. The CME Group's FedWatch tool shows that markets expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady, but traders see interest rates rising by at least 25 basis points by year-end [2]. The 10-year Treasury bond yield was at 4.61%, down from 4.64% yesterday [1].
Ford Motor rose 4.08% in premarket trading after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter earnings and raising its FY26 adjusted EBIT guidance [1]. Microsoft and Meta Platforms are expected to post quarterly earnings after the closing bell, with analysts expecting Microsoft to post earnings of $4.24 per share on revenue of $87.63 billion [1]. The second-quarter earnings season has reflected healthy corporate performance, with 85.2% of the 169 S&P 500 companies that have reported earnings having surpassed expectations [2].
The significance of the Fed's decision and the earnings reports will be closely watched, as they will provide insight into the health of the economy and the direction of interest rates. The market's reaction to these events will be crucial in determining the trajectory of the S&P 500 and other major indices.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 31, 2026 · How we report
HSBC set a year-end 2026 target of 8,100 for the S&P 500, representing an increase from their previous target of 7,650.
Bank of America analysts suggest the S&P 500 is overdue for a correction because it has only suffered one 5% pullback in 2026 and is entering the September-October period, which historically averages a 0.6% decline.
The S&P 500 has gained more than 12% in 2026 as of September, putting the index on track for its fourth consecutive winning year.
The S&P 500 averages a 0.6% decline during the September-October period based on data dating back to 1928, making it the weakest two-month performance window for the index.