Ethereum Price Outlook: Kalshi Traders Eye $2,650 Target

Ethereum traders on the prediction platform Kalshi are positioning for a potential climb to $2,650 before the end of August, reflecting a bullish shift following a 20% weekly rally that pushed the asset past $2,400 [1, 3]. This target remains a market-derived expectation rather than a guaranteed price, serving as a benchmark for sentiment as the asset struggles to decisively clear the $2,500 resistance level [1, 2].

Market sentiment and ETF flows

The optimism surrounding the $2,650 forecast coincides with a surge in institutional demand for spot Ethereum exchange-traded funds (ETFs). On August 25, these funds recorded $179.8 million in net inflows, with BlackRock’s ETHA fund leading the demand by accounting for $146.44 million of that total [1]. Despite these inflows, the broader cryptocurrency market experienced a slight cooling, falling 1.95% to a total market capitalization of $2.61 trillion over the past day [1].

While the Kalshi forecast suggests confidence in short-term growth, the asset has faced repeated profit-taking near the $2,500 mark [1]. Technical indicators currently show neutral conditions, with the four-hour Relative Strength Index (RSI) retreating from overbought levels to 55.57 [1]. Analysts note that while the asset remains within a broader bull market structure above $2,350, the MACD indicator remains below the signal line, suggesting a potential fade in momentum [1].

Price levels to monitor

The path to the $2,650 target depends on Ethereum’s ability to sustain a close above the $2,500 psychological barrier [3]. Failure to maintain this level could trigger a retest of the $2,350 support zone, with further downside risk potentially exposing the $2,000 and $1,800 levels if selling pressure intensifies [1].

What to watch

• $2,500 Breakout: Monitor whether the daily close can consistently hold above this resistance, which is required to open the path toward the $2,600–$2,650 range [1].
• Institutional Flows: Watch for sustained net inflows into spot Ethereum ETFs, as these have served as a primary catalyst for recent price support [1].
• Support Stability: Observe the $2,350 support level; a failure to hold this area could signal a shift in short-term sentiment toward the $2,000 mark [1].

Whether Ethereum reaches the $2,650 target depends on the asset's ability to overcome profit-taking at current levels and maintain the momentum generated by recent institutional inflows. Market participants remain focused on the $2,500 threshold as the primary indicator of whether the current bullish outlook will hold through the final days of the month [1, 3].