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Morningstar values SpaceX at $780 bn, about 48% below the low end of the $1.5‑2 tn market range, signaling caution before the June IPO.
SpaceX’s IPO filing this month targets a $75 billion raise at a $1.5‑$2 trillion valuation, but Morningstar’s equity analysts peg the company’s fair value at $780 billion – roughly 48% lower than the most conservative market estimate – raising questions about pricing and near‑term share‑price pressure【1】.
| At a glance | |
|---|---|
| IPO size | $75 bn |
| Market valuation range | $1.5‑$2 tn |
| Morningstar fair‑value estimate | $780 bn (‑48% vs. low end) |
| Starlink medium‑term profit driver | Established launch infrastructure |
Morningstar’s analysts, Nicolas Owens and Suryansh Sharma, built a cash‑flow model that assumes SpaceX’s growth projects – notably orbital computing and AI data‑center services – are “highly uncertain” in terms of timing and financial outcomes【1】. Their most optimistic scenario gives SpaceX a 7% chance of supporting 21% of global AI compute demand, while the most likely outcome projects only 4% support by 2040. The valuation gap stems from these low‑probability assumptions and a “narrow” moat despite the company’s $10 bn‑plus spend on its Grok AI chatbot【1】.
The analysts warn that the IPO could see an initial price bump, but subsequent tranches of insider stock slated for sale after lock‑up periods may exert “selling pressure” on the shares【1】. This suggests that investors seeking “margin of safety” might wait for later offerings rather than the primary issue. The valuation disparity also signals that the market’s $1.5‑$2 tn range may be overly optimistic given the firm’s unproven revenue streams beyond Starlink.
Morningstar’s stark downgrade underscores the uncertainty surrounding SpaceX’s non‑launch revenue streams and suggests that the IPO’s pricing will be a key barometer for how the market reconciles growth ambitions with realistic cash‑flow expectations.
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AI-assisted synthesis by the TrendWatcher Editorial Desk · sourced from 3 outlets · Jul 12, 2026 · How we report
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